Few people will be sorry to see the end of 2014. The start of a new year always presents the chance of a fresh beginning. This year, more than most, it is what we need.
Exactly a year ago today, the headlines of this newspaper were ominous. "Bangkokians at odds over Suthep's city shutdown threat" and "Shots fired at anti-government protests".
The Bangkok Shutdown came in February. The violence peaked and ebbed. The government was hobbled, the prime minister was dismissed by the courts. Then the military took over, with the 18th promise in 82 years of a short martial hiatus and then, finally, true democracy.
Politics lay behind most of the bleakness of 2014. The economy, in effect, tanked. Thailand suffered its first true recession since 1997. Economists called it a "technical recession" but it felt pretty realistic to cash-strapped companies, laid-off workers, disappointed job seekers. If that were not bad enough, the recovery has been little better than the illness. Growth for this past year has been so small that experts are having trouble actually measuring it.
For all of that, 2015 offers enormous chances for optimism. Current politics are themselves at a standstill, and the military regime of Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha has already broken its promise that people could have their polls back this year. But the alternative is not actually that bad. It provides extra time — all of 2015 and the early part of 2016 under the newest Prayut promise — to consider what to do to make the country and governance better.
What came to be known as "reform", from the Bangkok Shutdown protesters, has a chance of success. It has got off to an admittedly slow start. Promised attacks on corruption have been few and far between. The men in charge of proposing reforms and a new constitution — no woman is in charge of any committee — have strangely put absurd proposals at the top of their agendas. They must straighten their priorities and get about formulating a supreme law and parliamentary process that can encourage the democracy the country first envisioned in 1932.
In truth, reform is required everywhere, although there are clear areas of need. It was not a reform or anti-corruption measure, but the breaking of the alleged Central Investigation Bureau mafia that showed why the police department must be at or near the top of the list for change. The public learned clearly from the arrest of Pol Lt Gen Pongpat Chayapan and his supposed gang why some policemen pay to join the force, and pay millions for promotions — to get to the billions that men at the top like Pongpat allegedly enjoyed.
This will be the year that Asean integration takes its huge first step. The Asean Economic Community (AEC) will be with us by the year's end. It will change the landscape of the regional economy. Despite a late attempt to add more protectionist layers to Thai industry and business, the country and its 67 million people will feel more competition. Thailand will step up to succeed and become an important AEC leader, just as it has been an Asean spearhead.
"Happy New Year" will be the call at midnight tonight, all around the country. The shock of the May 22 coup has receded. The country has a chance to move forward. It will take a lot of hard work this year to make reform pay off and bring in a constitution that protects the institutions, and all citizens. We wish everyone not just a happy New Year, but a tolerant, forgiving and productive one as well.