While Bangkok and the rest of the nation accept the well-explained steps in the Prayut government's plan for the next phase of the southern peace dialogue, civic groups in the Deep South are not holding their breath.
Muslims pray in a mosque in Pattani. The government plans to renew peace talk with separatists in an effort to end the southern insurgency. (AFP photo)
For many, it's a case of not knowing whether a new round of violence will erupt before the dialogue resumes.
Last Tuesday the National Security Council (NSC) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha endorsed a new set of guidelines for the dialogue between security authorities and insurgents.
The prime minister reaffirmed that peace efforts need to continue, and the next step was the ratification of agreements after all sides — including both new and existing insurgent groups — recognise the roadmap for maintaining peace while enforcing justice through the legal process.
Three committees have been formed and assigned various tasks. The national committee is led by the NSC, the peace talks team is led by Gen Aksara Kerdpol, and the regional team is led by the 4th Army Region.
Gen Prayut told the public the details of the talks would be spelled out in the roadmap which will include a time frame and designation of violence-free areas by agreement of the two sides.
The prime minister's announcement has eased concerns the May 22 coup would kill off the already-wavering peace dialogue.
Civilians and military personnel familiar with the 2013 peace dialogue admit the roadmap is possible if those concerned agree to follow the state's assumption the talks are more about creating non-violent situations rather than achieving a full-on peace process as occurred in Aceh, Mindanao, Ireland and Columbia, which required the parties be on the same footing.
"Whether to call it santisuk [peacefulness] or santiphap [peace], this will benefit Thailand as a whole," said a security official, adding that behind-the-scenes meetings will be held before all stakeholders can sit down for photo-ops.
He was referring to the untimely release of a photograph on Feb 28, 2013, of a handshake between then NSC chief Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabut, Hassan Taib, the representative of Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), and Malaysia's former special branch police chief Ahmad Zamzamin bin Hashim.
At that time, experts questioned the possibility of an expedited "historic deal" as vowed by the Yingluck administration — to be more precise by her ousted brother Thaksin Shinawatra — due to the fact the process was poorly arranged and loaded with a hidden agenda.
The BRN was not successful either in gaining a common understanding with rebels on the ground, but they were more or less in solidarity with talks which eventually led nowhere.
Along the way, the Thai military and nationalists worked against the talks. So did the juvae (Pattani ground fighters).
At the same time, Hassan Taib and BRN fighters made use of YouTube tactics to gain recognition and promote their agenda. BRN juvaes, in particular, brushed aside the old cadres at the negotiating table and demanded merdeka (independence), not just autonomy under the Hassan proposal.
As the Prayut government revives the peace dialogue, it has set preconditions which will be difficult to implement, said a former member of the defunct peace negotiating team. At the top is a demand for a list of the "wanted" men from each insurgent faction to be presented at the talks, either at the inauguration or at secret meetings, the sources said.
Kuala Lumpur is in a difficult position trying to bring together all of the ingredients for the official launch as requested by Thailand, and that was one reason for a secret meeting between Ahmad Zamzamin bin Hashim and Gen Aksra in Bangkok last Wednesday.
"High-level pushes and PM-PM visits will also help clear obstacles while operational teams at regional and national levels are racing against time because Gen Prayut wants it to kick off this year," a senior military official told the Bangkok Post.
Civil sources, however, allege the military is employing a two-faced strategy — on the one hand engaging in a peace dialogue, while on the other conducting extensive search, patrol and suppression operations with more security personnel, especially para-military rangers in a relentless bid to uproot the BRN. Under such circumstances, there are concerns for the safety of civilians.
As the military mobilises outcast factions of the BRN led by Awae Yaba to present as representatives of Malayu Muslims (and supporters of the talks), the Dewan Penilian Party (DPP) is staying clear.
The DPP is the executive arm of the BRN that controls militancy on Thai soil and has already said it will not accept the junta-sponsored talks, said another southern activist.
Tuwaedaniya Tuwaemae-ngae, a member of the Academy of Pattani Raya for Peace and Development (LEMPAR), said he is afraid the BRN juvaes will retaliate against military operations before — or during — the new talks.
"They opposed the autonomy effort at the previous talks. As the prime minister has ruled out autonomy. How can they see any benefit in the renewed negotiations?" Mr Tuwaedaniya asked.
This was to be expected. Military sources admit the first quarter of this year will be tense as neither side is ready to let its guard down.
Achara Ashayagachat is a senior news reporter, Bangkok Post.