Yingluck leaving would be a win-win for both camps

Yingluck leaving would be a win-win for both camps

There is only one reason why the junta is putting the brakes on former premier Yingluck Shinawatra's request for permission to go to Hong Kong to see her fugitive brother — to prevent her exile.

The official reason given is that only the court can decide on her travel request now the Office of the Attorney-General plans to indict her in the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders over the rice scheme.

This new political move has put Ms Yingluck on the defensive; she can no longer travel abroad as easily as before. It is clear the military does not want her do what her brother did.

In 2008, then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had gained court permission to attend the Olympic Games in China. He fled to Britain on the day the court found him guilty of corruption in the Ratchadaphisek land deal and handed him a two-year jail term. 

If the military allows Ms Yingluck to leave the country before her court case begins, and if she does not return, the political implications would be immense.

The case could not start, the court might have to be closed, and the government would face tremendous criticism from the anti-Thaksin movement for "wasting" an opportunity to punish the Shinawatra clan.

Ms Yingluck now has no choice but to face trial — not only one for lawsuit, but two. The first one concerns her alleged dereliction of duty to stop the problem-plagued, loss-ridden rice-pledging scheme. If ruled guilty, she could go to jail for one to 10 years.

The second lawsuit is about government-to-government rice deals with China, which the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) found actually did not exist.

The commission has also criticised the use of fake documents and the setting up of proxy companies to buy rice from the scheme.

Although there is no proof that Ms Yingluck was involved with these rice deals, the NACC argues that, as head of the government, she cannot evade responsibility.

If she is found guilty in this lawsuit, the punishment would be grave and she may face a much harsher jail term than her brother. During her two years and nine months in office, the rice-pledging scheme was plagued by corruption at every level, the NACC said. It also cost the country more than 600 billion baht. Given the massive corruption involved, it is unlikely the lawsuit will stop just because the defendant is absent.

That's not all. She might also face another lawsuit from irregularities in the anti-flood scheme. The Office of the Auditor-General has found irregularities in waterway dredging projects in the Ping-Wang-Yom-Nan river basin.

The NACC is investigating the case. Given several legal battles ahead, it is understandable that Ms Yingluck might want to leave the country. After her impeachment, she even issued a statement saying "Without justice, no one can exist."

It took a long time before the Office of the Attorney-General decided to indict her in the rice-pledging scheme. During that time, Ms Yingluck and her supporters still hoped to survive the lawsuits. After all, the patronage system works for both rival camps. 

But after the overwhelming 190-8 vote in the National Legislative Assembly to impeach her, with the result that she is now banned from politics for five years, it is clear that her support has weakened tremendously.

It is understandable why the embattled former prime minister would not want to stay in the country and risk facing jail. It is also likely she would get her way with secretive support from certain quarters. 

Many political analysts believe Ms Yingluck will soon join her brother. They believe the military, after weighing the pros and cons, will conclude it is all for the better if she leaves. For as long as she remains in Thailand, the government will continue to face criticism from the international community which does not understand Thailand's judicial system and views the lawsuit as political persecution. 

Keeping Ms Yingluck in prison, meanwhile, would entail endless headaches for future governments, whoever they are. Should Ms Yingluck seek political exile status to live overseas, her wealth would enable her to live in comfort anywhere in the world. Her being away would allow future governments to work unhindered. It is a win-win situation for both camps. 


Nattaya Chetchotiros is Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post.

Nattaya Chetchotiros

Assistant News Editor

Nattaya Chetchotiros is Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post.

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