Fossil fuel habit puts energy future at risk

Fossil fuel habit puts energy future at risk

The discovery of the first commercial natural gas field in the Gulf of Thailand in 1981 was hailed as a milestone that would propel Thailand to economic prosperity.

There is no denying the availability of uninterrupted energy from indigenous sources is crucial for the country's rapid industrialisation and is the lifeblood of modern comforts and conveniences people cannot do without.

When the Ministry of Energy (MoE) asserts that the country will face severe energy shortages if the government does not renew its controversial petroleum concessions, it is not surprising that a large number of people feel there is no choice — especially when the MoE insists that the current gas reserves will only last seven more years.

While scare tactics are being used to heighten the public's fear of an energy crisis, the public is constantly told by TV advertising campaigns that "clean coal" is the saviour that can support the government's coal power plants in Krabi province. However, it will seriously affect the Andaman Sea's marine ecosystem.

It is this fear that has narrowed public choice to only fossil fuels.

It is interesting that during the recent debates by the National Reform Council (NRC) on the controversial renewal of petroleum concessions, some of its members who were former senior MoE officials have publicly admitted that new energy technology will soon replace petroleum energy. 

Die-hard supporters of petroleum drilling, however, still insist that the available petroleum resources must be exploited quickly before they become obsolete. 

According to the MoE's report, Thailand has limited petroleum potential: out of 28 oil concessions granted seven years ago, oil was found only in five spots.

Supporters of oil drilling, however, insist Thailand needs to let more drilling go ahead in order to find more sources.

Given Thailand's low petroleum potential, the emergence of new energy technology, and the need to import coal for new coal-fired power plants, it seems clear to me that our continued dependency on fossil fuels is making our energy future extremely insecure.

At a time when drilling for more oil does not guarantee successful finds, the world is ushering in a bright new future of renewable energy from solar and wind energy — which is currently largely untapped in Thailand.

The MoE's Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency estimates that technical potential for Thailand's renewable energy is as high as 71,518 megawatts — of which 42,356 is potential solar and 14,141 wind energy.

But only 6% is currently being exploited, mostly by private investors.

As of the end of 2014, the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) recorded the nation's total installed power capacity at 35,668 megawatts, with peak demand at 26,942 megawatts in April.

About 67% of electricity was generated from natural gas, 20.8% lignite, 8.5% hydropower — most of which is imported from neighbouring countries, 2.3% renewable energy and 1.2% oil.

The government is to blame for holding back the development of renewable energy by giving little support for people to switch to green energy.

The solar energy policy, for example, sets a limit of 100 megawatts for home solar rooftop users to sell generated power to the government at a premium rate. Private investors have over 2,000 megawatts. Unsold solar stocks have more than tripled over half a decade.

If every household could produce and sell solar power, the energy sector in Thailand would be revolutionalised. The environment would be cleaner and poverty alleviated.

I recently visited a group of farmers in Buri Ram who are using energy from solar panels in their farms to run drainage systems without the government's subsidy. They save money that would instead be spent on expensive diesel.

Still, energy authorities continue to perpetuate the myth that solar and wind energy are expensive and unstable. 

The MoE is now revising its Power Development Plan (PDP) to prepare for power supply management between 2015 and 2036. The predicted peak power demand will be revised to 59,300 megawatts in 2036.

It's likely that PDP gas usage will reduce from the current 60% to 30-40% of electricity generation. Meanwhile, coal and lignite usage will increase to 25% to fill the gap left by declining natural gas resources.

We may see a rush for construction of controversial hydropower projects in Myanmar and Laos, which will sell most of their generated electricity to Thailand.

The target for renewable energy is likely to increase to 15-20%. This amount includes energy from large dams, and there is no guarantee of a state commitment to solar and wind energy development. 

During the meeting of the PDP committee last month, it was agreed that renewable energy's 2036 capacity target should be reduced from 20,800 megawatts to 16,279 megawatts. That's not all. There may also be a 24% cut in the energy saving target.

While the revised energy plan is not yet complete, the government has already signed memorandums of understanding with neighbouring countries to buy gas and electricity from their dams.

Despite the energy surplus ahead, the government insists on increasing the use of fossil fuels, despite global trends for solar and wind energy and the severe threat of global warming.

According to the United Nations-led Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the remaining sources of coal, oil, and gas must be left untapped to prevent natural disasters.

The government must make wise decisions for the future because renewable energy technology will be inexpensive in contrast to the higher cost of fossil fuel exploration.

Thailand must take a bold step and move away from fossil fuels to a low carbon energy future. It can start by no longer manufacturing fears of energy shortages to undermine renewable energy.


Paritta Wangkiat is a news reporter, Bangkok Post.

Paritta Wangkiat

Columnist

Paritta Wangkiat is a Bangkok Post columnist.

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