In spite of the exciting drum beat and the colourful parade of dragon dance to celebrate the Chinese New Year Festival in Yaowarat neighbourhood, the overall sentiment in Thailand was not as bullish as the government may have hoped it would be.
Thai consumers still did not spend — even during their annual spending season.
The week of Chinese New Year usually provides a jolt to the economy. It's a time of optimism for the coming year, a time when people look forward to spending.
Some factories closed to give their employees a holiday. Many Chinese-Thai families reunited or travelled together after they worshipped their ancestors with auspicious food, such as honey-roasted duck and oranges.
This year, however, the celebratory mood was subdued.
For instance, consumers in the South scaled down their festive activities, partly due to the dropping price of rubber, one of the region's economic engines.
A recent poll from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, conducted just before the Chinese New Year, predicted consumers would spend 50.4 billion baht, which amounts to a slower year-over-year growth of 5.7%. In 2014, spending increased 5.9%.
Neither figure is healthy. Thanawat Ponvichai, who works for the university's Economic and Business Forecast Centre, said that when the economy performs well, consumer spending during the Chinese New Year should rise by 7-10%.
He attributed this low-key sentiment this year to the fact that people are not confident about their economic prospects and urged the government to accelerate budget disbursement to set a clear direction.
Consumer concern is understandable. Thailand’s gross domestic product growth is slower than its neighbours, expanding by only 0.7% in 2014.
It was the weakest growth rate in three years, due largely to the political turmoil.
But dismal exports are also to blame. Thai exports, a major contributor to GDP and the country's economic backbone for decades, hardly budged from the previous year because of slower demand overseas and a slump in agricultural prices.
Among the top-10 export items are plastic pellets, chemicals, machinery parts and rubber, the price of which fluctuates alongside volatile demand on the global market. In short, the Thai export sector has, in general, failed to upscale to
higher-end production.
The business sector, meanwhile, is reluctant to spend because it, too, is uncertain about the direction of the economy.
Seed money from public investment has not been significant enough to kick start private investment. This is despite the fact that there is sufficient financial liquidity on the market.
Central bank governor Prasarn Trairatvorakul recently urged both government and business operators to invest now to capitalise on low borrowing costs.
The global economic slowdown and foreign exchange volatility have led to lower prices of foreign products. Having the fiscal means can directly and immediately affect business and consumer spending.
If the government accelerates budget disbursements, the additional cash flow will be directed to the business sector.
But government spending has remained slow. The Budget Bureau reported that only 65.7 billion baht, or 15%, of the investment budget had been disbursed as of the middle of this month. The figure was much lower than the 41.8% required by the government.
When the government is under strong public scrutiny, public officials are afraid to approve any projects that may invite controversy. Consequently, some were reluctant to affix their names to new investment projects.
In addition, the reform effort has been progressing too slowly to provide a friendly environment for commerce. There should be clearer guidelines on 4G, definite details of the railway construction programme, and a revamp and regulation of the tax code and foreign business laws to help the private sector make investment decisions.
Instead, the recent debate on how to boost the economy has focused on monetary policy, which may barely have an impact.
Decision-makers have to articulate a clear vision for future growth and investment. These real issues have to be addressed to ensure the Thai economy will rise.
Otherwise, the Chinese New Year's festive mood may be tainted again next year by chagrin over lacklustre economic sentiment.