The whole system of rotating US ambassadors is broken. When we might lay eyes on Ambassador Glyn Townsend Davies in a limousine flying US fender flags is a mystery as great as when Mr Obama was finally going to officially name him as the replacement for Kristie Kenney.
She had to serve an unpleasant extra term in Bangkok because of a bunfight between Mr Obama's White House and the US Senate. She left after she simply insisted she had to get to her next assignment as deputy assistant secretary for public diplomacy and public affairs in the East Asian and Pacific affairs bureau. The political posturing by her betters continues.
It would take a column to background, but there are dozens of appointed US ambassadors and judges awaiting hearings in a senate that is stubbornly refusing to give the "advice and consent" demanded by the US constitution. A designated attorney-general, Loretta Lynch, has been waiting since November. Ambassadors have been waiting longer than that.
This is difficult to absorb in a country where ambassadors' rotations are announced in four-paragraph press releases, interesting only to insiders. Mr Davies could be approved in good time, since he is non-political and an uncontroversial appointment. There is a coin-flip chance he could be caught in Washington's Shenanigans Machine and kept away from Bangkok for months. And months.
As for Mr Davies himself? Within diplomatic circles, the usual sources let it be known that the ambassador-designate is a nice guy, quiet, you know? Well, stop the press. A 35-year veteran of the diplomatic corps is a pleasant man who doesn't rant and blow his stack in public. Who would have predicted that?
And, as a fellow North American diplomat emailed to friends, "Bangkok must be his reward" for years of often unpleasant work confronting often unpleasant issues with often, well, yes, unpleasant North Korean people. Being US ambassador to Thailand is not a job for a lazy man, but it does beat lots of other US State Department assignments abroad these days.
The point being that the lack of a US ambassador in Bangkok was never a diplomatic slight. It was never meant to be part of the actual slights the Nobel Peace laureate and his State Department have been heaping on Thailand for the past 332 days, and fully intend to continue.
In fact, having an ambassador in Bangkok is very much part of continuing the game - and don't doubt it is a game.
A pair of much bigger deals is taking place than the designated ambassador's appointment. One is in the Philippines; the other is on the desks of unidentified generals and/or admirals in Washington and Honolulu.
Balikitan Exercises 2015 are the 31st annual war games using the "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" codename from Tagalog. Like Cobra Gold, they began as a sop after US troops were kicked out of local bases. Unlike Cobra Gold, though, the Balikitan games have been quite modest exercises - until now.
This year's exercises, from Monday through to April 30, are Cobra Gold-sized, involving 12,000 troops, the bulk of them Filipino but with beefed-up participation by both US and Australian forces.
Also contrasting with Cobra Gold, Balikitan is an in-your-face spite to China. Manila is actively engaged against the Chinese buildup in the Spratly Islands just off the Philippines coast. Getting Washington and Canberra to pitch in on their side is no small confidence builder for the Benigno Aquino government.
As it prepared for a strongly augmented Balikitan in a country with an elected government, Washington dropped the other shoe at Nakhon Ratchasima. It seems US officers who were expected to open planning for Cobra Gold 2016 were too pooped to participate. The session wasn't postponed or put off; it simply didn't take place. The planning officers had other matters to attend to, washing their hair or the like.
You get to read into this what you want, because there was literally no information or specific background from the Thai or US green machines. Officially, planning is still going to take place for Cobra Gold next February, except that so far it hasn't.
It was just about a year ago that US and Thai planners agreed it was time to invite China into Cobra Gold, as a show of good faith. That happened, and last February's multination operation went reasonably well. The thing is, though, that the US has no qualms about helping out the Philippines in a decidedly taciturn operation so far as Beijing is concerned.
This year's Cobra Gold was a "light" operation, with relatively small troop commitments, with the emphasis on non-combat operations - everything from medical and emergency deployment to human rights enforcement. The Cobra Gold of 2016 is scheduled as a "heavy" year, with a division of US troops to conduct the spectacular pyrotechnics of live ammunition, tank drives, beach landings and parachute assaults.