The latest proposal that the next election be delayed to allow the "troubled charter" to be fixed looks like a curve ball in the political game.
On the surface, it appears like an attempt by the junta to widen its options as the next date in its roadmap is coming up and things do not look very tidy.
Under this theory, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) must have placed high hopes on the draft charter. The junta must have envisaged the new charter as serving as a tool to both tame the election mandate and ensure the regime's power and conservative agenda are carried on through almost a dozen supra-government organisations to be set up.
If these were the junta's goals, the Constitution Drafting Committee did not disappoint.
The 30-plus drafters came up with more than 300 rules that are almost certain to produce a weak coalition government that will have to toe the line devised by the junta through such new organisations as the reform steering committee and reconciliation panel.
The junta and CDC must have expected positive feedback for their blueprint for a "guided democracy".
Unfortunately, most people do not seem to be rejoicing. Politicians decry the new draft as being anti-democratic in many aspects. Academics and political activists, meanwhile, slam it as being more like a strict father from the old days than the highest law guaranteeing people's basic rights and liberties.
The opposing sentiment has become so strong there are fears the draft could trigger another round of conflict in a society still jittery by recent clashes.
That the draft charter has turned out to be unpopular makes life more difficult for the regime.
If the document at least appealed to some groups of people, the NCPO might be able to get away with holding a national referendum, which is not only costly but also unpredictable.
A charter referendum can be a flashpoint for conflicts. It is natural that the junta would rather avoid it.
Since the draft has been panned almost across the board, however, the call for a vote has grown louder. If the junta had been hesitant about holding a referendum, it would hate it even more to bear the risk of the draft it sponsored being voted down by the majority.
Under this scenario, holding on to power while delaying everything seems to make the most sense. That is probably why the so-called reconciliation forum was held last week to gauge reaction from politicians and academics to this possibility.
The positive response from the forum participants, including a rare agreement by political rivals from the Democrat, Pheu Thai and red-shirt group, that they would rather see the election being delayed for a few years instead of moving forward under a "troubled draft charter" might sound like good news to the junta.
It would get to prolong its stay in power, obviously. There would be more time to do what the soldiers want to do to the country; more time for what they have done to take root.
If one takes a careful look at the delay option, however, it may not appear as appealing as it may have seemed. (Story continues below)
In fact, if there really is a poll lag, it's the NCPO and military government that stand to lose the most. May is approaching and the junta will have to face up to the fact that it does not have a sterling record to show on the coup's first anniversary. Trouble caused by the country's crumbling bureaucracy and lack of effective law enforcement is cropping up everywhere, from aviation in the skies to fishing in the seas.
The military government may be working hard to ward off international penalties and boycotts but it is seen as being more and more behind the curve largely because of its own bureaucratic mindset.
Its status as a junta does not help when it comes to these international issues. Making matters worse, the economy has shown no signs of improving.
While the junta can argue that no one could have done a better job given the global downturn, it can't escape the fact that this economic hardship is happening under its watch.
All this points to the fact that it may not be wise for the NCPO to delay the poll and hold the fort for two or three years as suggested.
A better option would be to try to fix the draft charter within the given time frame. Hold a referendum between the current draft and an older version which the junta believes is best. Then proceed with the election.
Let the country return to democracy.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Contributing Editor, Bangkok Post.