Army set for top brass shift before polls

Army set for top brass shift before polls

Myanmar’s army chief, Sen Gen Min Aung Hlaing, will step down within the next two months and enter the country’s political scene, according to informed sources. The current second in charge, Vice-Gen Soe Win will replace him within weeks, according to sources close to the general. The official order was signed earlier this month.

The move will come just as the country prepares for multi-party elections later this year. “Clearly Min Aung Hlaing has political ambitions, and is retiring to enter politics,” said Win Htein — a National League for Democracy (NLD) MP and a member of the party’s central executive.

The expectation is that the outgoing army chief will join the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), formed by his mentor, Snr Gen Than Shwe. But this is far from certain, the retiring general can still enter politics without being a member of a political party, as nominations for the actual presidential race do not need to be elected MPs.

There has been speculation about the army commander’s future plans for some time now, with many believing he was due to retire this year. The compulsory retirement age in the military is 60, but earlier this year he insisted he will not reach the age of retirement until next year. However, some sources suggest that Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing may be retiring because of health reasons.

Some analysts have suggested that the current top two generals would retire together as their predecessors — Snr Gen Than Shwe and Vice-Snr Gen Maung Aye — did in March 2011. Reported tension between the two top military commanders fuelled this speculation. Soon after Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing became commander in chief, he removed three senior army officers — Maj Gen Tun Khan, Divisional Commander of Yangon, Maj Gen Tin Ngwe of Mandalay Region, and Maj Gen Kyaw Phyo, who was in charge of the Triangular Division — known to be close to Gen Soe Win.

However, any rift between the two top generals will not have been allowed to disturb cohesion, unity and morale within the army. “The interests of the military as a whole always supersedes personal rivalries and divisions,” said Sean Turnell, a Myanmar expert at Macquarie University in Australia. “As the institution that sees its self as protecting the interests and security of the whole country, and with considerable collective economic interests, they will always maintain a united front.”

Many analysts have been tipping Lt Gen Myat Htun Oo — who has been rapidly promoted up the ranks in the last couple of years — to succeed Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing when he retires. He was also appointed head of military intelligence last year. More recently he has been prominent during the current military campaign against the Kokang, who are ethnically Chinese, in Northern Shan State.

Lt Gen Myat Htun Oo was originally in charge of the military operation in August 2009, which forced the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to flee — with many believing its leader Pheung Kya-shi — also known as Peng Jiasheng — took refuge across the border in China, after first escaping with the help of the Wa rebel army — and split the Kokang rebel group. During this offensive though there are reports that hundreds of Myanmar troops have been wounded or killed.

Nevertheless, this campaign has raised the profile of the army, and fostered a surge of nationalist pride in the Tatmadaw — with thousands of Myanmar people expressing their admiration for the soldiers in the front line on the country’s social media. This has also increased Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing’s political power in Nay Pyi Taw. Since the fighting erupted in early February, Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing dominates the weekly National Defence and Security Council meetings, according to informed sources, with Thein Sein completely side lined.

Whatever the debate and divisions within the army, the question of succession has been resolved amicably, and Gen Soe Win will take over as commander-in- chief of the military in July. The army’s hierarchical nature and the need for institutional stability have prevailed. Lt Gen Myat Htun Oo will have to wait his turn, but as the comedian and former political prisoner, Zaganar put it, “he’s still the one to watch”.

While it is as yet unclear who will become the deputy army chief, sources close to the military believe it will be Lt Gen Kyaw Swe, who until he was replaced last year, also ran military intelligence, with Lt Gen Myat Htun Oo likely to become the third highest ranking office in the army. Lt Gen Kyaw Swe is also reportedly close to Gen Soe Win.“This has always been the tradition within the military, that matters of promotion and succession are strictly kept inside its ranks,” said Mr Turnell. “There can be no doubt that Min Aung Hliang and Soe Win have already mapped out the military’s future course and agreed on the major decisions collectively.”

One of Gen Soe Win’s key priorities will be to make sure the army maintains its prominent role in the country’s politics, including protecting the 25% quota of seats it automatically has in parliament, under the 2008 constitution. It will be the new commander-in-chief who will appoints these 166 MPs. Under the constitution the military commander also appoints three ministers — defence, home affairs and border affairs — these then will also be selected by Gen Soe Win. As part of the plan for the future, it is also almost certain Gen Soe Win will instruct the military MPs in the next parliament to select Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing as vice-president.

The lower house and the upper house also nominate vice-presidents, and then at a joint sitting of both houses — including the military MPs — the new president will be selected from the three vice-presidential candidates. While Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing is not expected to get the presidential post this time round, the army is going to have a powerful say in who finally is voted president. So now all eyes will be on Gen Soe Win to see if he will differ in anyway from his outgoing predecessor. Democrat politicians are split on what to expect, but some believe a new face may usher in a new approach. “In comparison to Min Aung Hlaing — who is a tough guy — Soe Win seems open and reasonable,” said Win Htein from the NLD.

However, Khin Maung Swe, leader of the National Democratic Front believes Gen Soe Win will be even more hard line than Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing. The Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) leader Hkun Htun Oo insisted that the ethnic minorities dealings with Gen Soe Win in the past had not been encouraging. While several Kachin MPs on the other hand were more enthusiastic as they felt he was flexible and sincere when he was Northern Commander.

Snr Gen Min Aung Hlaing certainly presents himself as a tough, confident, no-nonsense commander. Even to the extent of making his subordinates in his office wear bulletproof vests. Gen Soe Win on the other hand has the reputation of being a loner, concerned about excessive corruption and prepared to consider dialogue as a means to resolve conflicts and tensions.

That would be good news for Aung San Suu Kyi — in terms of negotiating a coalition government after the next elections and proposed constitutional change — and the ethnic minorities, who will still be pushing for political dialogue on federalism and are likely to still be in the finishing throes of signing a national ceasefire agreement, when Gen Soe Win takes over as commander-in-chief. “With Soe Win at the helm, it certainly opens up the possibility of discussions,” said Win Htein optimistically.


Larry Jagan is a specialist on Myanmar, a former BBC World Service News editor for the region.

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