Malaysia and Thailand are poised to launch another round of peace talks with southern Muslim separatists next month, but the main player — the Barisan Nasional Revolusi (BRN) — remains reluctant as usual.
Just days after the chiefs of the National Security Council and 4th Region Army confirmed a fresh round of talks in early June, the explosions started. Improvised pipe bombs have been detonated at 36 locations in Yala since Thursday night. Among them were explosives targeting the province’s electricity supply on Friday morning.
Officials in Bangkok said the attacks were revenge for casualties sustained in recent military operations, while intelligence sources in the South said the bombings were a show of force by networks associated with the BRN — both older cadres and new recruits. But civilian observers in the deep South said the incidents show the BRN is retaliating against being forced into peace talks dictated by the Thai state.
Despite sharing the same aim of dousing the “fire” in the South, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has tried to distance his government from the Yingluck administration’s failed talks with insurgents. Malaysia is equally hopeful that fruitful talks can be resurrected after an almost two-year hiatus.
Talks facilitator Dato Samsamin, former director of Malaysia’s intelligence agency, and Gen Aksara Kherdphol, the army advisory committee chairman who heads the Thai delegation, are said to be equally anxious about getting things back on track.
Malaysian leaders are particularly keen to play a positive role on the regional stage after facing turmoil at home, including two tragic plane crashes and a feud between serving Prime Minister Najib Razak and former premier Mahathir Mohamad.
Gen Aksara and Mr Samsamin have already overseen talks in Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok to settle the agenda for the discussions, and exactly who will contribute. Their preparatory teams have also been talking with insurgents in exile behind the scenes.
But the first major issue preventing progress is intransigence on both sides. Thais want “peace and stability” and the BRN wants “peace and freedom”. The BRN is effectively refusing to budge on the independence issue.
Tuwaedaniya Tuwaemae-ngae, a member of the Academy of Patani Raya for Peace and Development, said unrealistic demands from the Thai state make it hard to move forward. “The Thai side is still using the same strategy — asking Kuala Lumpur to pressure leaders of the BRN to return to the table,” he said.
Mr Tuwaedaniya said the BRN is unlikely to back down on the five demands it made during previous peace talks, given the Thai side has downgraded the aim of the dialogue to achieving santisuk, peace and stability, not santiphap, peace and freedom.
The BRN wants independence and sovereignty for the “Melayu Pattani nation” and for charges to be dropped against suspected separatist militants.
It is also calling for the release of all prisoners held on offences related to the insurgency and for the peace process to be made a national priority.
Maj Gen Nakrob Boonbuathong from the Internal Security Operations Command is helping prepare for the negotiations. He said the BRN and its networks have been discussing terms for the talks and will be ready to meet the Thai side within weeks.
Maj Gen Nakrob said representatives of southern insurgents living in Malaysia have formed an umbrella body to unify active rebel groups ahead of the peace talks. But the BRN is yet to commit to taking part. “We’re waiting for confirmation on whether they will recognise Awae Jabat to speak on their behalf,” he said.
Whether Mr Awae even has the clout to speak for the BRN is another key issue. Hassan Taib, the former lead negotiator for the BRN, pulled out of the talks when they plunged into crisis late in 2013.
A Rueso native, Mr Awae was instrumental in the launch of the Malaysia-brokered talks between the Thai side and the BRN in February 2013. He was an aide to the late Abdul Karim Khalib, one of the BRN’s founders, who had close links to former prime minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh during the 1970s and 1980s.
But Mr Awae has not been considered a representative of the BRN, at least not at the same level as Mr Hassan.
After the meeting in February 2013, the BRN delegation and the Thai side met for another four rounds of talks. The last of the ill-fated discussions was on June 13. Despite Malaysia and Thailand’s best efforts to keep negotiations afloat, Mr Hassan released a YouTube message on Dec 1, 2013, officially severing his role in the foundering talks.
According to military sources in the South, Mr Hassan was never particularly keen on leading the talks for the BRN, not least because the movement is so elusive about its grand plans.
“The renewed talks will be immediately discredited unless Awae Yabat or someone else is given a mandate from the BRN’s decision-making council,” Mr Tuwaedaniya said. “Without that mandate, flops and failures will soon be the order of the day.”
Infighting between disparate insurgency groups had stalled the peace progress until now, but the launch of the umbrella organisation to represent those interested in negotiations holds promise. The body has been dubbed Majlis Amanah Rakyat Patani, or Mara.
Mr Awae is expected to represent the BRN as part of the umbrella organisation. Another 15 civic groups affiliated with the rebels plus Buddhist representatives are set to get involved with the talks, military sources in Narathiwat said.
A military officer who is backing the talks said the recent bomb explosions are an unfortunate part of the negotiation process.
“It’s a shame to see violence occurring alongside the peace talks, but it’s understandable because the Thai state cannot go beyond constitutional limits to meet the demands of the insurgents,” said the officer, who asked for anonymity.
“The separatists’ bargaining power rests on terror tactics.”
Bangkok-based officials concede that the BRN’s demands remain the main sticking point. But they claim both sides will be able to make progress if discussions can be held behind closed doors first.
A Bangkok-based military source said prisoners also have an important role to play in the talks. “We have to think of how to get those who are behind bars to get involved in the peace process,” the source said, echoing calls made by jailed southern activist Muhamadanwar Hajiteh, better known as Anwar.
He was convicted by the Supreme Court in May 2013 and is serving 12 years for supporting BRN terrorist activities.
In the eyes of Thai intelligence services, the militant factions that remain active in the South are chiefly to blame for sabotaging peace efforts. Officials say they attempt to reassert themselves from time to time, in competition with rebel groups outside the country.
One member of Mara told the Bangkok Post Sunday that the body is still trying to finalise who will sit on its team for the fresh talks. He said they are still unsure if Mr Awae will represent the BRN as part of its group.
“He only acts as the coordinator for the BRN members in the team,” the Kelantan-based representative said.
“In the meantime, we’re also waiting for other positive signals from Gen Prayut in response to Hassan Taib’s original proposals, such as putting the peace dialogue on the national agenda. Without that, the talks will not move forward. If the junta fails to do this, then we can wait for a civilian government.”
The representative said the group will not allow another futile end to peace efforts, adding that the word mara literally translates as “to move forward” in Malay.
The organisation will “present a unified proposal for all groups” and will seek peace for the Pattani people “with or without peace talks”, he said.