After a year of relative inactivity, the political scene has exploded with some spectacular punches and counter-punches last week. The question people naturally have is: why now?
Following the May 22 coup, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra seemed content to play the waiting game.
An election must be held, if not in a year then in two. Thaksin was convinced he would win again. Instead of wasting his time fighting a losing battle with the dominant army, Thaksin would be better off playing the victim and keeping his toppled democracy card.
What prompted the former PM to push the Privy Council button again when he knew it would blow? Thaksin claimed in an interview in Seoul that the Privy Council was behind the May 22 coup.
Some political pundits believe Thaksin set off the political explosion that cost him his two Thai passports because he could not help it. Thaksin has loose lips, it is well known. In this case, his habit has obviously sunk his ships, commentators said.
I would rather think Thaksin intentionally let slip the comment because he could use it to test the waters. There is no reason for the former PM to let his old habits get the better of him now after holding his tongue for more than a year. Thaksin must have realised the military regime could be here for longer than expected.
Apart from that, the soldiers are actively planting their conservative roots and getting involved in costly megaprojects that will become part of the country's future for years to come.
Although a new timeline has been set for the election which took into account a referendum for the new draft charter, it might happen on time. In fact, an internal conflict might emerge between the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC), the National Reform Council (NRC) and the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) over the draft charter.
CDC chairman Borwornsak Uwanno sent a clear signal he would not easily bow to substantial changes to his lengthy, 300-section-plus document as proposed by the NRC. While there are many calls for the part about citizens and citizen duties in the draft to be changed, Mr Borwornsak said the amendments would be possible only "over his dead body".
The proposed changes cover more than 100 issues. Imagine the internal wranglings, possible hurt feelings and eventual cracks? If Thaksin does not take the opportunity to pop back into the scene now, then when?
It is possible the wrangling over the new draft will drag on longer than scheduled. Besides, if it is rejected by the NRC, the entire process will have to start all over again from square one.
Thaksin's waiting game, in which his people, ideas and ideology are relegated to the sidelines, is no longer a winning one when the opponent's showtime is extended indefinitely. It's possible his remarks were a calculated move to gauge both the military leaders' reaction and public sentiment in the country.
Granted, it is not the first time the ousted PM has tried to bring the Privy Council into the political conflict. The NCPO's reaction, however, appeared extraordinarily furious this time.
It started with the Foreign Ministry revoking Thaksin's two passports as police probed the possibility the ex-premier insulted the monarchy in the Seoul interview and violated the lese majeste law. A police panel also recommended Thaksin be stripped of his police rank of lieutenant-colonel while an NRC member urged the government to take back his royal decorations.
Seeing a raft of retaliation directed at Thaksin, some political observers have concluded the ex-prime minister is on the losing side this time round. I think it is still too early to tell. Even though it may appear like we have reached a knock-out moment in a boxing match, when the two fighters have discarded their guards and opted to engage each other blow-by-blow, this could end up being just the beginning of a new game.
Some people may assume Thaksin has been beaten into a retreat but the fact is he has not lost anything yet. The passports are nothing. The police rank may be of sentimental value while the lese majeste accusation and royal decorations revocation will become a controversy that could work to his advantage in the end.
Thaksin's power lies in the ideas he tried to champion, whether they're his genuine belief or not, not in his police rank or travel documents. The military regime has ratcheted up the pressure when Thaksin seems to have made only an overture. It must be prepared if the former PM, stripped of all things, wants to raise the stakes even higher.
Atiya Achakulwisut is Contributing Editor, Bangkok Post.