Former weatherman Smith Dharmasaroja is well known for his doomsday predictions, such as his forecast in 1998 that a tsunami would hit southwestern Thailand, which actually came true seven years later.
His detractors contemptuously brand him a scaremonger and his forecasts are frequently ignored.
After the December 2005 tsunami, then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra appointed him head of the National Disaster Warning Office, a post he still holds.
His credibility was rendered a blow when in early last year he predicted there might be snow in northern Thailand, because of what he called the "polacool" phenomenon. He cited snow falling in Israel and Egypt as an example. He was wrong. There was no snow last year and the cool season was so short-lived many of us in Bangkok did not even pull light sweaters from our closets.
Smith Dharmasaroja (EPA photo)
In January last year, Mr Smith warned that Thailand would face a serious drought problem, to the extent there may not be enough water for all needs. He warned there may be a fight for water between city dwellers and rural folks if farmers were not told to stop excessive cropping because they would pump up all the water available to just feed their thirsty fields.
No one took him seriously, not even the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. It was not until early this year that farmers were told there would not be enough water for their second crop. But main crop farming continued, with no forewarning there might not be any water left later to irrigate their fields.
And last week, Mr Smith issued another warning, saying the worst is yet to come if there is no substantial rainfall this month and in August. He explained that rainfall in Thailand comes from two natural sources -- storms and rain troughs which, he said, are yet to show themselves.
What is interesting about his warning this time is that he told us not to believe everything the Royal Irrigation Department says about there being enough water in the dams to last through the drought.
He said irrigation officials measure the volume of water stored in dams by just looking at the level markers, which show the depth in metres, and then calculate the amount of water stored in the dam.
They seemed to be forgetting one important factor -- that is, the sediment that has accumulated on the reservoir beds over the decades. In actuality, the lakes behind our major dams have become shallow due to the accumulated sediment, and the level shown on the markers could be misleading, he said.
Drought is inching its way toward Bangkok. Three districts of Pathum Thani ran out of tap water over the weekend because the klongs that feed the water plant had dried up. Although water has since been released into the klongs and tap water services will resume soon, this is just a temporary relief. Sooner or later, the tap water will be cut off again.
Meanwhile, the Royal Irrigation Department was due to seek cabinet’s approval on Tuesday to slash daily water releases into the Chao Phraya River from 28 million cubic metre to 18 million cu/m starting this Thursday. This would be a huge cut and would certainly affect the quality of tap water produced by the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority. The water would be more salty and may not be good for drinking.
We, Bangkokians, have been told a couple of times lately not to be panic, and that our taps will not go dry. I think we should be hearing more from the government and various authorities about what we should do to prepare for a worst case scenario. And about what concrete steps have already been taken, or not taken, by the authorities.
I only hope that Mr Smith is wrong again this time.