Cabinet shake-up more a question of when, not if

Cabinet shake-up more a question of when, not if

Speculation of a cabinet reshuffle emerged last week after the amended interim charter received royal endorsement, opening the door to previously banned politicians to be included in the government. Although Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was dismissive of the speculation, saying: "I have not said a word about it," a shake-up is on the cards.

The question is when, and political insiders say it is likely to be in September. A reshuffle should not come as a surprise. The government has been running the country for about 10 months, sufficient time for Gen Prayut to make his own assessment of how it is performing. Repeatedly in meetings with ministers and government officials, he has made it clear he wants the country to move forward.

He’s made it clear that if necessary he will make changes. And he’s done this with the transfers of senior government officials — permanent secretaries even — when he felt the job wasn’t being done.

But a cabinet reshuffle is another matter. In forming his government after the coup in May last year, Gen Prayut had to ask some of his brothers-in-arms — coaxing some out of retirement — to join his cabinet because he needed people he could trust beside him. At the same time he had to rely on others to tap civilians to join his government either as ministers or advisers.

In September last year he did not really have a clear idea how each minister would perform. But by now their performances should be clear to him. He should know which ministers can get the job done and those who are making a genuine effort.

Gen Prayut should also be able to identify by now those whose words and promises need to be divided by half, or more. At the same time he’s had the opportunity to listen to criticism, comments and suggestions from the business community, the media and the public.

The government has made a serious and genuine effort to tackle human trafficking. Laws have been changed; legal processes and coordination between police, prosecutors and the courts have been improved. Crackdowns and arrests have been made.

Although driven by the downgrade in the US Trafficking in Persons report, human trafficking has been declared a national priority. There is no doubt that a great deal more needs to be done to sustain this effort, not only because of the TIP report, but because we must treat others as we would treat ourselves.

Likewise, action is being taken to tackle illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing to avoid a red card by the European Union in October. Although the Fisheries Act has been amended, the EU’s feedback is that more clarity is needed not only in the law, but in policies and practices.

And like the drive against human trafficking, progress in tackling IUU fishing depends on implementation of the law. Judging by the manner in which Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan is handling this issue, these changes will be made.

Tough tasks : The role of the Foreign Ministry under Gen Tanasak Patimapragorn is being questioned as Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula takes heat despite ardent efforts to boost the economy.

From the start, Gen Prayut’s government faced an uphill and impossible task of explaining and convincing the international community why the coup was necessary. Consequently, explaining the objectives of the new charter and efforts at reform is equally difficult as views and debate continues to rage even among Thais, not only on issues of substance, but also on the manner in which it is being done.

But the role of the Foreign Ministry — whether the government is democratically elected or not — is crucial in getting the government's message across. The prime minister should have obtained feedback on whether all pistons are firing at the Foreign Ministry headed by Gen Tanasak Patimapragorn, and whether it is contributing as it should.

The feedback to date is that it is not.

For Thais, the key assessment of the government’s performance is the economy. Without doubt, high-speed rail projects with the Chinese and Japanese are key and necessary projects for the future in which Thais will benefit. The decision to speed up factory applications, the setting of approval deadlines and identifying new industry investment privileges are steps in the right direction.

So too are the national broadband and digital economy initiatives, although many questions and doubts remain in terms of implementation. These are all long-term initiatives.

But still, the economy is not where it was promised to be. Apart from dealing with problems stemming from the rice-pledging scheme, exports are under-performing, admittedly largely due to external factors. Consumption is down and the drought has not made things better, especially for farmers.

Efforts to boost domestic consumption by disbursing government funding were slow as the process was stalled by bureaucracy and its procedures. As a result, considerable pressure, comment and criticism have fallen on the doorstep of Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula and his team.

At the same time we continue to face aviation woes from the International Civil Aviation Organisation and most recently the US Federal Aviation Administration because of shortcomings in and by the Department of Civil Aviation.

With the smell of a reshuffle in the air, a number of individuals will be lobbying, either for themselves or on behalf of others, to be considered in a shake-up. In fact, it’s already started with speculation, once again, that Somkid Jatusipitak is being considered for a key economic cabinet post.

His inclusion would certainly implode the current economic team, resulting with the departure of MR Pridiyathorn and some would argue that it might be best to keep Mr Somkid in the influential role as adviser as he is now.

Political insiders believe that over the next few months, Gen Prayut can be expected to be more demanding for results, not only from members of the cabinet but from government officials as well. And when the time comes for him to decide on the changes, there will be little or no discussion or negotiation.

It remains to be seen how he handles the changes, especially if he believes the changes should involve a number of his band of brothers.

Pichai Chuensuksawadi

Editor-in-Chief & Bangkok Post Editor

He is an Editor-in-Chief at Post Publishing Public. He also served as Editor at The Post Publishing Plc from 1994 to 2002 and Special Assistant to the ASEAN Secretary General Dato'Ajit Singh from 1993 to 1994. He serves as the Chairman of The Bangkok Post Provident Fund. He is Chairman of The Bangkok Post Foundation and Phud Hong Leper Foundation. He is a Member of The Press Council of Thailand. He is a Board Member of IFRA. He is Chairman of the Organising Committee, IFRA Asia Pacific. He has BA in Journalism from Queensland University, Australia in 1979 and BA. Political Science from James Cook University of North Queensland University, Australia in 1976.

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