The US Federal Aviation Authority's announcement on Tuesday to downgrade Thailand's aviation safety rating from Category I to Category II is not beyond expectation among people in the aviation industry.
The FAA's demotion of Thailand's aviation safety standard follows a decision on June 18 by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to raise a red flag over "significant safety concerns" after Thailand's Civil Aviation Department failed to meet ICAO standards for regulating aviation businesses and granting air operator certificates within the 90-day deadline.
The red flag does not indicate a particular safety deficiency, but it shows that the Thai government does not provide sufficient safety oversight to ensure the effective implementation of all applicable ICAO safety standards.
At present, the FAA's downgrading of Thailand's aviation safety rating does not affect Thai airlines because no Thai airlines, including Thai Airways International, are flying to the United States. But Thai airlines will not be able to code-share with US airlines nor launch new services to the US in the future unless Thailand's aviation safety standards are restored.
Undoubtedly, the FAA's decision is a blow to Thailand's credibility in general and the Thai aviation industry in particular. But the bad news is not over yet. The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) is due to announce the results of its audit of Thailand's safety performance on Dec 15.
This time around, the impacts from EASA's negative assessment -- if that is the case -- will be more damaging because several Thai airlines, including THAI, are currently flying to several European countries. In the worst-case scenario, other Asian countries may also put restrictions on the operations of Thai airlines.
Some airline executives have called for the direct involvement of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha to address the unresolved problems identified by the ICAO. They believe that the Command Centre for Resolving Civil Aviation Issues headed by air force commander-in-chief Tritos Sonchaeng has failed to tackle the problems so far.
There is no guarantee that the direct involvement of the prime minister will be of any help. Yet the current unfavourable situation warrants an emergency meeting of all relevant parties to identify the problems and to come up with solutions before EASA delivers its verdict.
Several of the problems are the product of neglect by successive governments over the past several years. Bureaucratic inertia, lack of inter-agency co-ordination and financial support amid a rapidly growing aviation industry are also part of the long-accumulated problems that need time, money, and state commitment to resolve.
The government can promise the EASA, ICAO and FAA to tackle its safety oversight failures in earnest. It can ask for understanding and more time. But in the aviation industry, where safety measures can never be compromised, producing concrete measures to meet ICAO requirements is the only way to restore international confidence.
Amid a stagnant economy and a slowdown in exports, the country is ever more dependent on the tourism industry. If Thailand still fails to meet ICAO's standard for regulating aviation businesses, tourism will be hard hit and the economy will decline even further. The government must put forth all efforts to prevent this scenario from becoming a reality.