Myanmar in Aung San Suu Kyi's hands

Myanmar in Aung San Suu Kyi's hands

National League for Democracy (NLD) party leader Aung San Suu Kyi shakes hands with Myanmar's military commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing before their meeting in Nay Pyi Taw. (Reuters photo)
National League for Democracy (NLD) party leader Aung San Suu Kyi shakes hands with Myanmar's military commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing before their meeting in Nay Pyi Taw. (Reuters photo)

After her massive electoral sweep of more than 80% of legislative seats on Nov 8, Aung San Suu Kyi now stands at a crossroads between her country's past and future amid her own leadership aspirations.

Her win, under the National League for Democracy (NLD) banner, was an overdue deliverance for the Myanmar people who have languished under the weight and abuse of military-authoritarian rule since 1962. At issue now, because she is constitutionally barred from being president, is whether Ms Suu Kyi is willing to lead from behind.

While such a role requires personal sacrifices that would not be easy for a global iconic figure who has suffered so much under prolonged adversity, it may be the best way forward for Myanmar, formerly known as Burma.

Like Thailand and other contentious polities in the Southeast Asian region and beyond, Myanmar's political stability and economic development necessitate ongoing accommodation and compromise, underpinned by a spirit of reconciliation for the greater good. If vested interests and personal ambitions supersede the public interest in stability and progress, then opportunities will be lost and regression and retrenchment may set in.

There are roughly three stages to Ms Suu Kyi's political life in Myanmar politics. The first phase is the most famous and clear-cut. For 15 years of house arrest over a 21-year span from 1989, when her movements were restricted, she was the petite lady fighting a military dictatorship, earning a Nobel Peace Prize and a clutch of other international awards and enduring the bitter price of estrangement from her husband and sons. Countless news headlines kept her buoyant in the international spotlight.

In many ways, that period now resembles the good old days when realities were harsh but clear. It was a battle between good and evil. And Ms Suu Kyi stood her ground and ultimately overcame the generals who harassed and hounded her to no end. This long period of dictatorship spawned an anti-military industry of NGOs and activists of myriad stripes, who are now at a loss in view of the momentous and historic election results and looming transfer to civilian government. In this phase, Ms Suu Kyi was impeccable in her commitment and resolve, and much of the world was by her side.

Ms Suu Kyi's last release from house arrest in November 2010 changed her situation dramatically. Thus began her second stage. Not long after, she became a full-fledged politician and won a by-election, taking a seat in parliament among the generals who had despised her.

Being a politician brought a different set of challenges that tested Ms Suu Kyi's earlier role as a democracy icon. It meant having to hedge her bets and not speaking up for some of the violations against ethnic minorities, such as the Rohingya. It also meant downplaying the Buddhist-led Burmese nationalism that victimised Rohingya and other Muslims.

Yet Ms Suu Kyi bided her time well ahead of promised elections in 2015. Her time as politician coincided with a remarkable political liberalisation instituted by President Thein Sein's administration. Thein Sein, a former general, turned out to be a reformer who came along just when reforms were needed for the country to move forward, notwithstanding partial reversals of basic rights and freedoms later during his rule.

The initially solid and crucial Suu Kyi-Thein Sein partnership eventually soured but enough progress had been made. Myanmar's military during Thein Sein's watch also made a limited withdrawal from the political stage as promised. Even during the run-up and immediate aftermath of the recent elections, Myanmar's generals marshalled a fair and acceptable contest to the surprise of many, further promising a smooth transition and transfer of power to Ms Suu Kyi and the NLD.

As newly elected leader who won on her iconic credentials and campaign for change, Ms Suu Kyi is now in her third stage in politics. She is the leader of Myanmar who cannot be its president. Her challenges as a politician during 2011-15 are now more conspicuous. The NLD is still too much about her and not enough about the younger generation of leaders, especially from the democracy-crusading days 20-odd years ago. Ms Suu Kyi is vague and short on policies and policy ideas. Unlike Thein Sein, who brought in fresh faces based on merit and skills, Ms Suu Kyi's team is thin on talent.

The biggest risk for Myanmar now is that the country has ended up where we have all wished it to be -- a democracy chosen by its electorate. Myanmar's military has made its compromises, retaining much power in its constitutional quota of 25% in the legislature but conceding much more. It oversaw a clean poll and has accepted the results.

Accordingly, the ball is in Ms Suu Kyi's court. Public expectations are huge, especially in ethnic minority areas where voters opted for Ms Suu Kyi because they simply want change. If their livelihoods do not improve soon, disappointment will set in, and disillusion could loom thereafter.

With such a huge victory and an overdue vindication, Ms Suu Kyi paradoxically needs to be measured, modest and magnanimous. Her conciliatory first post-election meetings with both outgoing President Thein Sein and armed forces Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing are a good start but there is a long way to go.

Ultimately, it will all come down to Ms Suu Kyi's character and temperament. Whether her vindication leads to vindictiveness will have much to say about how outcomes and contours will be shaped in Myanmar, with instructive lessons for nearby neighbours that are still trying to return irreversibly to civilian rule.


Thitinan Pongsudhirak is associate professor and director of the Institute of Security and International Studies, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University.

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