Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha made a huge commitment last week at the 21st Conference on Climate Change in Paris. He said he would put Thailand on the path to making massive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2030. But before he did that, Gen Prayut also signed a plan to boost electricity output over the next 20 years, partly by the construction of coal-fired power plants. He needs to tell the country how he intends to meet both goals.
Experts in global warming, power efficiency and alternative energy are sceptical. More than one of them described the premier's speech at COP 21 as a pipe dream. In it, Gen Prayut pledged to reduce the use of fossil fuels and boost renewable supplies. He told the conference that Thailand is willing to sign an international agreement that guarantees reductions in emissions, with penalties for failure to meet the target.
The prime minister was one of some 150 national leaders and 30 other high-ranking officials to put their country's image on the line. In one of the strongest speeches on the subject by any Thai premier, he pledged to back new, green industries that could help alleviate the economic pain of cutbacks in other energy sources. The alternative, he stressed, is more drought, less food security and disappearing natural resources.
It was a good speech. But also, as the sceptics quickly pointed out, it was just a case of talking the talk. To be taken seriously, he has to quickly show how he can justify both the 2015-2036 energy plan his government came up with and the huge scheme of emissions cutbacks he promised in Paris.
The truth is that he cannot balance these two projects. The first is guaranteed to raise greenhouse emissions with its new coal-fired plants. The other requires new, imaginative projects which take aim at the coal-fired plants and devise ways to work around them. The current situation demands the government devise a new policy that emphasises alternative energy, powered by renewable fuels from sustainable sources.
No other plan can work. It is difficult for the government at this time, because all previous regimes did the opposite. It is difficult for Gen Prayut, because before his trip to Paris, his own policies put alternative energy in second place or worse. Until today, no Thai government has ever made a solid commitment to alternative energy, let alone come up with a plan to employ it in meaningful ways.
In Paris, Gen Prayut put the nation and himself on notice. He began a countdown and set a deadline, and he must now work to ensure its success. He needs to accept this and warn the country that changes to long-standing energy programmes will cause hardships to some. It will take careful planning and rigorous enforcement to start cutting emissions, given that policies of the past encouraged adding emissions. There will be heavy criticism and worse, particularly from some of the most energy-dependent big businesses.
But there is no doubt the premier was right in his Paris speech. The alternative to cutting emissions is increased global warming -- a phenomenon that threatens coastal cities including Bangkok. A rise of even a couple of degrees will change weather patterns and increase disasters. Recent floods and the current drought illustrate how much worse things can get without efforts towards improvement.
This is why the public needs to quickly hear from the prime minister. He has laid out the task at hand in Paris. Now he must tell us how he intends to achieve it.