What should Asia aim for in Paris?

What should Asia aim for in Paris?

This week global leaders convene in Paris for the UN Climate Conference (COP 21) to strike a deal on climate change, their fourth attempt in the past 20 years to curb potentially catastrophic global warming.

The summit comes with fresh urgency: new studies predict that climate change may shrink the world economy by up to 25% by the year 2100 if nothing is done to prevent rising carbon dioxide levels and the burning of fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, sea waters rise and flood the Mekong River Delta, and hydro dams endanger Thai fisheries and farmers. Reconciling energy needs with climate change remains a major issue for Thailand and the world.

As heads of governments return to the negotiating tables, they take with them promising Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). INDCs allow countries to decide their own contribution to reducing greenhouse emissions, rather than imposing strictures determined by the international community.

Under INDCs, China has committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60-65%, India by 33%, Indonesia by 29%, and Thailand by 20%. These numbers demand nothing short of an energy revolution, setting Asian countries along a low-carbon path.

However, the success of reductions will depend upon countries' commitment to five principles: implementing renewable energy solutions; respecting the natural limits of the environment; phasing out dirty, unsustainable energy sources; creating greater equity in the use of resources; and decoupling economic growth from the consumption of fossil fuels.

Past events may have compromised the principles' solvency going forward. Six years ago the Copenhagen Climate Accord was created with the intention of raising $100 billion to fight climate change by 2020. But that financial pledge has been diluted at successive Conferences of the Parties, with only $10.2 billion committed to this day. If innovators of low-carbon technologies are to be compensated, the Accord could have -- and may still -- provided capital.

The Accord's hindrance could limit the efficacy of INDCs. Thailand with its INDC intends to reallocate 20% of its power generation to renewable sources by 2036. But with demand for resource-intensive hydro dams only increasing, the transition seems unlikely without the Accord to enable it.

Even if all the INDC pledges are fulfilled, the world would still be on course for a temperature increase of more than 2C above pre-industrial times.

Yet an international treaty binding countries to a unilateral set of criteria is unrealistic. Indonesia's climate muddle of deforestation and palm oil is unlike Thailand's hydro-dam blues, and a deal bridging the two would be overly general and likely ineffective. Moreover, the Kyoto Protocol in 2006 called for common but differentiated responsibilities; the flat application of a carbon tax would be unfair to a country like Thailand, whose energy needs as a "developing country" outweigh its capacity to adopt renewable sources -- in contrast to, say, the United States.

The agreements being sketched out in Paris are necessary despite their complexities and compromises. Efforts to cut emissions seem more serious now than previously. It is vital, though, that COP21 also sets a precedent for developments in clean energy and technology investment. Imminent infrastructure development in Asia -- some $30 trillion over the next 20 years -- affirms the importance of clean energy developments, and in turn the creation of international bodies to fund and supervise them.

As the Asian leaders meet in Paris, they must be ambitious but realistic. Thailand may serve as an example of the intricacies and solutions.

I mentioned earlier that Thailand's goal -- of reallocating 20% of its power generation to renewable sources by 2036 -- will be difficult to accomplish. The task is complicated by competing domestic interests. Hydro dams can be damaging to local agriculture and ways of life, but they bring big business to Thailand in the form of investments by China, which is undertaking some 40% of hydropower development in the lower Mekong River.

However, the scale of development guarantees that its collateral, of eroded waterways and damaged down-river fisheries, will cross borders: in other words, dam-building in Thailand has spillover effects in Laos. This risks the stability of China's enterprise and undermines long-term cooperation in the region.

There's something to be desired between country-specific INDCs and the modest requirements of international protocol. The arrangement leaves China free to fulfil its own INDC while pursuing reckless development abroad -- in Thailand.

Clinching a deal in Paris means re-framing it entirely. Action to reduce emissions should be taken even without the green imperative. Replacing old, inefficient energy models with new, efficient ones is cost-competitive, economical and environmental. China, while perhaps neglecting the local impact of its Thailand hydro-damming upon fisheries and cultures, might give greater weight to an economic argument, or the diminishing long-term prospects of its immediate fiscal returns. A somewhat pessimistic view on COP21 -- that Asian countries won't heed climate change, but will heed cost-competitiveness -- can be an occasion for change, and optimism, for Thailand and for the future.


Venkatachalam Anbumozhi is Senior Energy Economist of the Economic Research Institute for Asean and East Asia.

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