Climate-wise, we are told that the almost-unbearable heat, with the mercury rising well over 40C, will soon be over. Monsoon rain is about to start and will drive away the sweltering weather.
Yet the political climate is another matter.
We can already see dark clouds, a sign of storms, on the political horizon.
Undeniably, the key factor pushing the political mercury higher is the draft charter, crafted by the Meechai Ruchupan-led Constitutional Drafting Committee, and also the referendum, scheduled for Aug 7.
Ploenpote Atthakor is editorial pages editor, Bangkok Post.
The process of the referendum itself is no less important than the Meechai draft charter plus the contentious extra question about the Senate's role in choosing the prime minister, for it is being criticised for flouting democratic principle and compromising the regime's own political roadmap.
State intimidation is the name of the game. On Monday, in a bid to silence critics and academics disagreeing with the draft charter, soldiers and police turned up at a forum at a Bangkok university, and stopped participants from distributing leaflets giving seven reasons why people should vote "no" in the referendum. They also wanted Bencharat Chua from Mahidol University to report to Pathumwan police station.
In stark contrast, a state agency in Nakhon Sawan province issued a poster that invites the public to "take part in and vote for" the Aug 7 referendum. Such pro-draft wording coupled with an attempt to suppress those who are against it will lead to a public outcry.
On top of that, the huge gulf between arch-rivals, Suthep Thaugsuban, former chief of the old People's Democratic Reform Committee, and United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship leader Jatuporn Prompan, over the controversial draft reminds us of one fact: We are still far from unity and reconciliation and, despite no physical conflicts occurring, we are still stuck in colour-coded politics.
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon's gesture earlier this week in issuing "slap on the wrist" warnings to both sides" -- perhaps in an attempt to impress upon others that the regime is fair -- is useless. It merely gives the false impression that debating the draft is not possible. Such a gesture is unhealthy for the referendum process which if anything requires open discussion free from fear. If not, the referendum will be farcical and the three-billion-baht or so budget will have been wasted.
In an attempt to ease public anxiety, the Election Commission (EC) on Friday will issue a list of "Dos" and "Don'ts" which it says will reflect the charter referendum law, rather than the regime's opinions.
In trying to be flexible, EC member Somchai Srisutthiyakorn says the commission may choose to calculate the "cost" to be incurred as a result of charter opponents putting their messages across and decide if its legally okay. But I doubt if such a tactic is useful in the world of social media.
Mr Somchai has also warned those against the draft to bear in mind the bans and orders issued by the regime which, by having cited security, tend to be broad and across the board.
The key challenge for the regime is how to deal with growing disapproval and discontent that will increase in the lead-up to the Aug 7 referendum.
Over the last two years the regime seems to have managed to bring some peace back to a society that became used to being rocked by drawn-out protests and occasional violence. But this peace comes at a very high price -- the loss of freedom of expression. That is not real peace.
Making things worse are the litany of scandals that have substantially eroded public faith in a regime that pledged transparency and good governance. These include the Rajabhakti Park case and the nepotistic appointment of a general's son to a position at the Defence Ministry. Also there is the overuse of the draconian Section 44 to green-light projects which more often than not will trample on local people's rights and damage the environment.
There are rising demands for a more open society after two years under restrictions. Months from now, the regime will face more challenges on various issues with the referendum being among them.
There is an expectation that the referendum should be an inclusive process and those against it must be able to air their views without fear.
If not, the regime must brace for political storms where all kinds of weapons are useless.
This is something their military predecessors learned in 1992.