Auditor's findings have put MR Sukhumbhand in a precarious position v A thorny problem arises over what to do with the army chief when he retires v Flak over the Senate question forces the NCPO to look at alternative ways to prolong its power
The city lightsare dimming
Dark murmurings about Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra being forced out of City Hall before his term is up are getting louder, now the Office of the Auditor-General (OAG) has implicated him in alleged irregularities surrounding the controversial "Bangkok Light of Happiness" spectacle.
The 39.5-million-baht event, intended to be a New Year present from the governor as a boost to the local economy, was highlighted by a tunnel of coloured lights at Lan Khon Muang Plaza in front of City Hall on Din So Road.
The project involved five million LED lights and crystal light fixtures that many critics regarded as a waste of taxpayers' money. The state auditor indicated from the start that there were possible irregularities in the project's budget spending.
In the OAG's official findings released early this week, MR Sukhumbhand is among nine Bangkok Metropolitan Administration officials against whom legal action was recommended. The commission will forward its findings to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) for further action.
MR Sukhumbhand will have to step aside as governor if the NACC rules there is truth to the allegations against him. The process is likely to take several months and may not be completed before his term expires in March next year.
But the curtain could come down sooner if the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) gives in to critics' calls for the governor's dismissal. NCPO chief Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha can invoke his power under Section 44 of the interim charter to remove MR Sukhumbhand from his post.
Little sympathy is anticipated if that is the case, according to political observers.
Many Bangkok residents have grown weary of the governor over the last two years due to his handling of city flooding and his indifference to public criticism. Numerous people who voted, twice, to elect him to City Hall are in a dilemma over whether to defend him.
However, former Democrat Party MP Atavit Suwannapakdee who serves as an adviser to the governor is unfazed by the perils MR Sukhumbhand is possibly facing.
Several Democrat members are reportedly concerned that if Mr Atavit sticks around as an adviser, his political career might go down the gurgler with the governor. Young and energetic, Mr Atavit is a promising politician and should not put his career at risk, they believe.
"I have 100% confidence in the governor's honesty and integrity. I have no doubt he will stay on and complete his term," Mr Atavit has said.
Mr Atavit has served as the governor's adviser on budgetary planning since late last year after being advised by former Democrat heavyweight Suthep Thaugsuban.
His involvement with the governor apparently came at the height of the rift between the Democrat executives and MR Sukhumbhand.
Last November, there were reports that Democrat executives had agreed unofficially to expel MR Sukhumbhand from the party, once the NCPO lifted its ban on political meetings. This arose after they were repeatedly unable to contact him to discuss his work. Early this year the Democrat Party announced it had disowned the governor and would have nothing to do with his running of City Hall.
Mr Atavit insists he has respect for the party executives' stance, but it does not mean he has to turn his back on City Hall and the governor.
"I'm definitely not losing my way or getting mixed up [as some Democrats allege]. I am doing what Mr Suthep has shown me ... that is to serve the public. Serving the people is the priority.
Making room for a brother
There may be no better time for army chief Teerachai Nakwanich to start thinking about what he might do after his mandatory retirement at the end of September.
For this could become a crucial factor if there are to be any coincidental changes to the cabinet line-up at the end of that month to mark the second anniversary of the military government.
Gen Teerachai could be offered a seat in the cabinet if a reshuffle is called at the end of his time in the military.
But whether the general steps into the ministerial fold is of less interest than the portfolio that could be offered to him, should a cabinet shake-up materialise and he decides to take up the challenge of being in government, a military source said.
The options open to Gen Teerachai include deputy defence minister, deputy interior minister or a deputy minister with one of the civilian ministries.
It's a near certainty the army chief will end up in the cabinet after his retirement as he is Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon's favourite brother-in-arms among the elite Burapa Phayak military circle.
He is also well-trusted by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha. Gen Prayut was army chief, with Gen Teerachai serving as head of the powerful 1st Army Region, when he staged the coup that toppled the Yingluck Shinawatra administration on May 22, 2014.
As the countdown begins to his retirement, Gen Teerachai is talked about as having the qualifications to assume a cabinet post. The army chief is concurrently secretary-general of the NCPO. He is also leader of the NCPO unit vested with the sweeping power to handle the country's security through its direct supervision of the armed forces.
Should security problems in the country degenerate, the unit is imbued with total authority to restore peace and order.
Many senior officers in the forces are in agreement that Gen Teerachai has what it takes to occupy a ministerial post and direct top policies after his retirement.
The question is which cabinet post befits his credentials, taking into consideration the potential undercurrent and possibly damaging political implications from a reshuffle, which would involve removing and replacing certain post holders.
If Gen Teerachai is to fill the seat of deputy defence minister, for example, that would require shifting the current occupant, Gen Udomdej Sitabutr, to another, possibly civilian, ministry. Such a scenario would not go down well with Gen Udomdej, who according to a source close to him, has made it clear that he prefers to run a military ministry.
Analysts have discounted another theory in which Gen Prawit would vacate the seat of defence minister he currently holds and make way for Gen Udomdej while letting Gen Teerachai work as his deputy. Analysts feel Gen Udomdej is not experienced or senior enough to assume the role of full minister.
Also, putting Gen Udomdej and Gen Teerachai in the same ministry might provoke a unity problem as the two men do not exactly see eye to eye, although Gen Teerachai succeeded Gen Udomdej as army chief.
In the end, it might be up to Gen Prayut to call the shots, if Gen Teerachai is to become a contender for a cabinet post. Analysts feel the premier might go with the replacing of Gen Udomdej with Gen Teerachai as deputy defence minister, even if that hurts the feelings of Gen Udomdej who has still not recovered from the gruelling task of redeeming himself over the Rajabhakti Park scandal.
A political way forward
At the beginning of the year, some people were expecting the NCPO to lose the support of some allies on the account of the draft charter ushering in changes that would draw flak from certain social and political pressure groups.
The feeling was that the NCPO would need all the help it could get to ensure a smooth transition to democracy with the general election that is tentatively set for the latter half of next year.
That help could be on the way.
The prickly issue of an appointed Senate, decried as a backdoor attempt by the NCPO to extend its grip on power, has been the focal point of lots of invective, especially from the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties.
Pheu Thai says it won't vote for the draft charter in the referendum, while the Democrats have been less than welcoming to the proposal that would allow the appointed Senate to take part in selecting a prime minister during the five-year democratic transition. It says this additional point, to be voted on as an extra question in the referendum, is just not acceptable. But the party hasn't yet revealed its stand on the vote.
The uproar over the Senate issue has even been questioned by some of the NCPO's own supporters. They say if the NCPO wants to hold on to power for five more years so that it can carry out and complete national reforms, then it should say so and delay the election. It should not be forcing appointed senators to keep an elected government in check.
Some political theorists, though, say the 250 appointed senators would not be powerful enough to control national administration, if indeed the NCPO wants to retain power.
To be able to exert control over the government, they would need the help of MPs in the 500-seat House of Representatives.
One political source said the NCPO could set up a sympathetic political party, but the junta could be pressed for time as the general election is expected in only a year. An option is to usurp one of the established political parties, co-opting experienced politicians in other parties who command strong networks to work with it.
One such ready-made party is Bhumjaithai, led by Anuthin Charnvirakul. It is financially strong because the party boss runs the giant Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction Pcl empire which has clinched major state deals to build electric train lines and the new parliament building.
Besides having friends in various political factions, Mr Anuthin can draw on his connections with leading business figures such as King Power magnate Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha. In his political inner circle is politician-turned-football czar Newin Chidchob.
The party is thought to be in need of a secretary-general, though, and who better fits the bill, according to observers, than Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, the former deputy leader of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party.
If Khunying Sudarat, who apparently became disenfranchised from Pheu Thai when Yingluck Shinawatra served as prime minister, was to join Bhumjaithai, she would probably bring with her some former Bangkok Pheu Thai MPs.
The political outlook being orchestrated by the draft constitution, assuming it passes the referendum, could be dramatically altered. There is very little likelihood of a large party emerging from the general election. That means medium-sized parties, such as Bhumjaithai, will likely become a force.