The referendum result may well be the deciding factor in whether the next general election slated for next year will see Pheu Thai take its place in the starting line-up.
Not quite as confident
The referendum result may well be the deciding factor in whether the next general election slated for next year will see the Pheu Thai Party take its place in the starting line-up.
During the long weekend holidays these past weeks -- the Songkran festival in the middle of last month and Coronation Day early this month -- a number of Pheu Thai former MPs flew overseas to renew their allegiance to their long-time boss, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin recently was named by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as the element behind the political manoeuvring connected to the anti-government activities. It was the first time he had publicly fingered the former premier as having a hand in the political undercurrents.
Political analysts say the patronage system between local politicians, canvassers and civil servants, which had shored up support for political parties, is showing signs of weakening.
One by one, the influential factions which were the traditional foundations that maintained the strength of political parties when in government, including Pheu Thai, are switching sides and pledging their loyalty to the military regime under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
When the former MPs met Thaksin over those weekends, they came across a former leader who seemed somewhat resigned to the fact that the future of Pheu Thai, and possibly his own, in politics is not so assured. In the coming years, the NCPO is predicted to continue wielding power, even after the next general election set for the middle of next year, said a source in Pheu Thai.
The NCPO has drawn flak for attempting to prolong its hold on power by appointing 250 individuals to the Senate who will be working alongside the House of Representatives post-election.
"If Thai politics remains the way it is now, we'll only be playing within the rules set by the NCPO. It's pointless," the Pheu Thai source said, quoting Thaksin.
Thaksin has confided in a close aide that he might need to play a "trump card" if necessary. That card is to boycott the next general election if the draft charter passes the referendum on Aug 7.
The source said Thaksin sees no use in contesting a poll that he feels will be held under military dominance. He specifically begrudges the appointed Senate, seen as being specifically instrumental in the extension of NCPO power.
The next batch of senators, many of whom are expected to be selected from members of the current National Legislative Assembly, will enjoy a five-year tenure, assuming the draft constitution is approved at the referendum. This means their term will outlast the next set of MPs with a four-year term.
The party source said the appointed Senate could also expand its political power in a way that helps to strengthen small and medium political parties. The draft charter is also introducing a new election method which is criticised by some experts as emasculating the big parties by allowing party-list MP seats to be distributed more evenly among the smaller parties.
The Pheu Thai source said if the draft charter is shot down at the referendum, Thaksin and the party will wait to see which of the previously-abrogated charters will be resurrected for promulgation. In such a scenario, the party will watch to see whether contents of the charter will be redesigned to retain the NCPO's influence and power for years to come.
A hard nut to crack
There is no denying that 2015 was a turbulent year for Thai aviation authorities.
Signs of trouble began in February that year when the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) visited to make an audit, and things went downhill in June when the UN aviation regulator gave a red-flag warning for significant safety concerns.
In December the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) moved to relegate the country's aviation status from Category 1 to Category 2, for its failure to comply with ICAO safety standards.
After the FAA downgrade the country was given a breather days later when Thai Airways International (THAI) and MJets, which serve European destinations, were spared bans in an audit by the European Aviation Safety Agency.
Over subsequent months, efforts were made to correct serious aviation safety deficiencies including the establishment of the Command Centre for Resolving Civil Aviation Issues (CCRCAI) and restructuring of the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) which was remodeled as the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT).
However, the overhaul of the national aviation safety system did not seem to make much progress, and it prompted the CCRCAI to investigate why, according to a source familiar with the issue.
The CCRCAI, which is headed by air force commander ACM Treetod Sonjance, identified a handful of people, former DCA staff transferred to the CAAT, as a key factor holding back the efforts. They reportedly did not meet stringent criteria for qualifications imposed by the ICAO, and worse, allegedly accumulated influence over the years and improperly granted aviation-related permits and licences.
The command centre reportedly suggested that these individuals be removed, but its suggestion was greeted with silence. Some transport authorities reportedly defended these people as "knowledgeable about the aviation industry".
It was reported that two key transport officials -- former director of CAAT Chula Sukmanop and transport permanent secretary Chartchai Thipsunawee -- were summoned by the command centre and asked to deal with these people. Nothing happened.
ACM Treetod was said to be close to giving up on following through on such inaction, according to the source.
But he could not afford to quit and decided to give it another push by confronting Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, who was said to be speechless when he was presented with "damning" evidence.
After that meeting, Mr Arkhom appointed Mr Chartchai as acting CAAT director and sped up the selection process to find a new CAAT director.
Six candidates applied for the position but only three passed the initial screening process. They were Sqn Ldr Alongkot Poolsuk, former managing director overseeing aviation resource development at THAI; ACM Arom Pattawee, deputy chief of the Joint Staff; and Mr Chula, currently director-general of the Department of Airports.
Mr Chula later announced his withdrawal from the race, reportedly at Mr Arkhom's request, and Sqn Ldr Alongkot Poolsuk was named the CAAT director.
The damage to the aviation industry in the past year is huge and hard to estimate, not to mention the fact that the country's airlines are also feeling the strain as they must put their route expansion plans on hold.
While the pressure will be on Sqn Ldr Alongkot, tension will also be shifted to Mr Arkhom who, according to observers, seems to have directed his focus to railway projects and is paying inadequate attention to the aviation authority.
One key problem is deemed solved, and observers are keen on seeing major improvements in the months to come, which is hoped will eventually result in the country qualifying to have the ICAO's red flag on safety concerns lifted.
More trouble over temple
The transfer of an army officer who initiated the construction of a scaled-down replica of the ancient Preah Vihear temple near the Thai-Cambodian border to an inactive post is the talk of military circles.
Col Thanasak Mitraphanont, commander of the Ubon Ratchathani-based 6th Infantry Regiment, was transferred to the Office of the Army Secretary in Bangkok amid concerns the replica would revive border tensions and strain relations between Thailand and Cambodia.
The replica was built on Pha Mor E-Daeng, located on top of Khao Phra Viharn National Park in Si Sa Ket province opposite Cambodia.
An army source said army chief Gen Teerachai Nakwanich signed the transfer order on May 4 before flying off to Japan on an official visit. The army chief will return to Thailand tomorrow.
The source said the reason cited for the transfer was that Col Thanasak did not inform his superiors formally in writing of the construction project and failed to consult with agencies concerned.
Even though the construction site is on Thai soil, consultation is required for the construction of symbolic structures, the source said.
Col Thanasak is known to be a close aide to Gen Thawatchai Samutsakon, the former commander of the 2nd Army which oversees the border at Preah Vihear temple, and who is also a friend of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in Class 12 of the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.
Leading the way in border skirmishes with Cambodia troops in 2011, Col Thanasak was known to have given no quarter to the rival forces.
The army put the replica off-limits last week after it was said to ready to open for visitors, amid concerns over the impact on Thai-Cambodian relations.
An order was issued to cover the replica with a black cloth while awaiting demolition, said the source.
The transfer order raised questions as to what wrong Col Thanasak had committed and whether his transfer was warranted.
In fact, Col Thanasak had verbally informed his superiors of the construction progress of the replica regularly since late last year, the source said.
The officer himself also did not think the construction of the replica would be such a big deal. About 10 years ago, he had a similar replica of Preah Vihear erected at the 23rd Ranger Regiment in Si Sa Ket's Kantharalak district, the source said.
The source also said that Gen Thawatchai and Col Thanasak met Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to report on the details of the replica plan before construction of it kicked off.
Gen Prawit was also invited to unveil a centre for Preah Vihear temple history study, where the replica of the temple is located, the source said.
The source added Col Thanasak was transferred partly because the army top brass were concerned that his no-nonsense stance against Cambodia could hurt relations. So the transfer was meant to avoid any renewed tensions with the neighbour to the east, the source said.
Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai had previously said that relations between Thailand and Cambodia remained on amicable terms.
The replica was intended to be an alternative to the real Preah Vihear in Cambodia and to which entrance from the Thai side has been closed. Military craftsmen from the 23rd Ranger Regiment and the Suranaree Task Force had worked for five months to build the miniature temple.
A member of the National Reform Steering Assembly, Col Thanasak donated 3 million baht for the construction, while materials worth about 2 million baht were donated by businesses, the army source said.