A very long, winding road to happiness

A very long, winding road to happiness

Like many Thais, I was looking forward to what the military regime under Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was going to say about its achievements after two years in office on Wednesday. But there was nothing as the announcement was delayed, perhaps until yesterday.

We have no idea what caused the delay. All are eager to hear about the "good news" that the efforts to bring back happiness to Thais have borne fruit.

I cannot help but wonder if the delay has anything to do with the Commerce Ministry's negative figures regarding the country's imports and exports which came out on Wednesday afternoon. Those figures, which are somehow contrary to the ones presented by some cabinet ministers, show the real condition of the country's economy.

Earlier this week, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon wanted us to put on our rose-tinted spectacles when thinking about the economy which he said was in the "green" since we will eventually achieve our economic growth target with ease. After all, we are under the kind of rule where anything and everything gets done with a single command.

Umesh Pandey is Asia Focus Editor, Bangkok Post.

However, Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn and her aides gave a different picture of our economy, with a sharp decline in exports, on the very day the government would have rather focused on its achievements. I wonder if she and her team will require some "attitude adjustment" for giving out negative information.

Deputy Commerce Minister Suvit Maesincee had the audacity to come out to announce an 8% year-on-year decline in exports for the month of April 2016 after two previous months of slightly positive export figures.

The sharp decline in exports caused the first four months of this year's export figures to drop back to negative 1.2% year-to-date.

To make matters worse, imports -- an indicator of how things are going to be given the fact that some of them are capital goods that will be processed and possibly consumed domestically or exported -- saw a double-digit decline. Imports for the month dropped by 14.9% year-on-year.

The nearly 15% tumble in imports surprised many analysts who had hoped that the jinx of double-digit dips in imports was over after March's 7% decline. Thailand has seen eight months of double-digit import declines over the past 16 months.

Ask any economist or analyst about the meaning of those numbers, and they will tell you one thing -- we are in for a bumpy ride ahead.

But the government still keeps telling us otherwise and that we should not worry about the future as the regime is resolute in pursuing its "bring back happiness" campaign.

This government is determined to maintain the concept of "returning happiness to the people" and for us not to be worried about the future. I am sure our future is secure in the hands of the men in uniform.

Undoubtedly we have seen much hard work by this government. They have managed to bring down lottery ticket prices, bring into line some transport vans, clear up the beaches from the parasites ripping off the tourists with their outrageous charges for food and chairs/shades and ... hold on, I'm having some difficulty trying to remember more things we have seen over the past two years.

Well I know my readers are smarter than me, so you can fill in the blanks.

But let us not get carried away. Back to reality, if imports and exports don't get going again, the 10% or so that that the tourism sector is contributing will not be sufficient for the country's economic growth to achieve the 3-3.5% targeted by the National Economic & Social Development Board.

And let us not forget what happened late last year when a single bomb in the Ratchaprasong area nearly brought our fickle tourism sector to its knees.

God forbid such a thing ever happens again, but is it not the right time yet to fire up more engines of growth that would help us diversify our reliance on exports (60% plus of GDP) and tourism?

As we enter the third year and only our Dear Leader knows how many more years it will be before we get a civilian government, is it not time that we pick one new sector that we could push all the way and make it what we made of the automotive sector among the 10-member Asean grouping?

I know I am raising more questions rather than providing answers, but after so many broken promises of happiness from this regime, I have the right to question where on earth our country is heading.

Umesh Pandey

Bangkok Post Editor

Umesh Pandey is Editor, Bangkok Post.

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