Exports expected to decline
- Published: 12/07/2011 at 07:42 PM
- Online news:
Higher oil and labour costs resulting in slower world economic growth will likely reduce exports in 2nd half of year.
TRADE: Exports projected to decline in the second half by Phusadee Arunmas
Thai exports in the second half will grow at a slower pace as rising oil prices and labour costs will increase production costs as the global economy slows.
The latest survey of the export composite leading index in May dropped to its lowest level in eight months at 100.5 points, the fourth consecutive decline.
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the International Trade Studies Centre of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, took this as a signal of slower export growth in the third quarter of only 11.3-18.1%, or US$55.73 to $59.15 billion.
He projects export growth in the second half of 6.2% to 12.9%, or $108.59 to 115.48 billion. This would make full-year exports worth $221.09 to 229.13 billion, or growth of 13.2% to 17.3% - much lower than 28.1% growth in 2010.
He said diminishing export growth was in line with slower world economic growth, and higher fuel and energy prices will increase production and transportation costs for Thai exporters.
Anticipated rising labour costs could really affect Thai labour-intensive industries, particularly for garments, which already face labour shortages and fierce competition in international markets. Thailand risks losing market share to Vietnam, China, Indonesia and Bangladesh.
The Pheu Thai party has pledged to raise the minimum daily wage to 300 baht, and it offered new university graduates a 15,000-baht monthly salary. The centre expects staffing cost in the private sector will rise by 20%, resulting in overall production cost increasing 3.88%.
Mr Aat said the new government should gradually increase the wages, starting with highly skilled workers in electronics, garments and food sectors.
Meanwhile, higher crop prices and expansion to the Asean market will support growth, but the new government should ensure currency exchange moves via the market mechanism, he added.
He noted the government should be cautious about budget spending on populist projects
(Source: Bangkok Post, TRADE, Exports projected to decline in the second half, 12/07/2011, Phusadee Arunmas, link)
projected - expected, forecast, the amount that experts believe (forecast) for the future
pace - the speed at which something happens ท่างทำนอง ย่างก้าว จังหวะ ที่สิ่งต่างๆ ดำเนินไป the speed and rhythm of something (See glossary)
grow at a slower pace - the growth of the economy will slow down (incomes will increase more slowly)
global - throughout the world ทั่วโลก
survey - gathering information about what people think about different subjects (public opionion) by asking large numbers of people questions and counting their answers, and then using statistics, graphs, and tables to present results (See Wikipedia) การสำรวจความเห็น
economic indicator - "a statistic about the economy. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries. Examples: unemployment rate, quits rate, housing starts, Consumer Price Index (a measure for inflation), Consumer Leverage Ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, Gross Domestic Product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, stock market prices, money supply changes" (See Wikipedia)
leading economic indicator - economic indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes (See Wikipedia)
index - an index is a statistical measure of changes in a representative group of individual data points. These data may be derived from any number of sources, including company performance, prices, productivity, and employment. Economic indices (index, plural) track economic health from different perspectives (See Wikipedia)
composite - made up of many different parts
leading index - a leading economic indicator
composite leading index - a leading economic indicator made of many parts
export composite leading index - an economic indicator that shows whether exports are going to increase or decrease in the future, before they actually change (See website)
consecutive - following one after another in order, happening one after another, following one after another in order and with nothing else in between อย่างต่อเนื่อง ติดต่อกัน ที่ต่อเนื่องตามลำดับ
fourth consecutive decline - it has decreased four times already, without increasing once
X signals Y - X shows that Y is true or happening
signal of slower export growth - shows that slower growth is happening (or will happen soon)
third quarter - the time period of three months July, August, September (a period used for budgeting and financial reporting)
X in line with Y - X agrees with Y; X follows Y
energy - power from electricity and oil that makes machines work
fuel - same as "energy"
anticipate - expect or believe that something will happen (before it actually happens)
anticipated rising labour costs - expecting that the cost of paying employees (wages, salaries) will increase in the future
intensive - involving a lot of something (such as labour, effort, energy, or attention)
labour-intensive industries - companies that make goods that require a lot of labour (a lot of worker time)
garments - clothing
shortages - when there are not enough goods for people to buy การขาดแคลน
labour shortages - companies cannot find enough workers to do the work that must be done (note: actuall find enough workers who are willing at the low wages the company is offering)
fierce - very intense and very aggressive
fierce competition - very intense and aggressive competition (fighting over limited things)
international - ระหว่างประเทศ between countries
international markets - the buying and selling of goods and services between companies in different countries
market share - the percentage of the customers in a market that a company has
X losing market share to Y - company X losing customers to company Y
pledged - seriously promised to do something สาบาน
wage - an amount of money that you earn for working, usually according to how many hours or days you work each week or month ค่าจ้าง
minimum daily wage - the lowest amount of money that a company can offer a worker for their work each day
salary - a fixed amount of money that you earn each month or year from your job เงินเดือน
staffing cost - the money that a company must pay to their employees
sector - a part of the economy ภาค (ทางเศรษฐกิจหรือสังคม) (public sector = government, private sector = all businesses, household sector = families and consumers, banking sector,...) (See Wikipedia)
private sector - all the companies in the country (not owned by the government)
wages - the amount of money earned per hour by a worker
expansion - when something increases in size, number or importance การขยายออก
support growth - help the country's economy grow
ensure - to make certain that something happens or is done รับรอง ให้ความมั่นใจ ให้การยืนยัน รับรอง
currency - a widely used the money accepted for exchange of goods in an economy เงินตรา (See Wikipedia)
currency exchange - changing the money of one country (currency) into the money of another currency
market mechanism - the way "free" markets for goods and services usually work (price free to move up and down with changes in supply and demand)
ensure currency exchange moves via the market mechanism - make sure that the exchange rate reflects actuall supply and demand (not distorted by intervention like before 1997 crisis, for example)
cautious - careful to avoid danger ระมัดระวังไม่ให้เกิดขึ้น
budget spending - government spending from the government spending budget
budget - the amounts of money that an organisation has available to spend on different things during a period งบประมาณ (See Wikipedia)
populist - a politician who claims to care about the interests and opinion of ordinary people (may just hand out of a lot of free things that do not advance long-term growth and prosperity of the country)
About the author
- Writer: Jon Fernquest
Position: Assistent Manager Educational services