It is time for Yingluck Shinawatra's government to forsake its piecemeal measures towards the southern conflict and adopt a bolder, more comprehensive policy to allow political solutions to prevail over military measures.
Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva, left, Prince of Songkla University rector Chusak Limsakul, centre, and former Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad attend the International Conference on Political Science, Public Administration and Peace Studies yesterday. VICHAYANT BOONCHOTE
It is at risk of losing state legitimacy in the eyes of southern Muslims who are plunging into deep despair amid the worsening violence.
The first step the government should take is to recognise and give official blessing to the peace talk processes, both among different stakeholders in the South and with the insurgency movements.
Since the southern violence broke out in 2004, there have been dialogues among civil society groups that included local and national intellectuals as well as local and national politicians. This process has gradually been mobilised and dubbed the Pattani Peace Process.
In parallel are behind-the-scenes discussions between the military and the insurgency movements. Termed "hearings" by the authorities to avoid political sensitivity, this dialogue is supported in the 2012-2014 policies of the National Security Council (NSC). Yet it has faced some hiccups in recent months.
The NSC policy accommodates insurgents who want to give themselves up and involves other high-level communications in an effort to end the nine-year violence.
Concerns over the deepening crisis have brought distinguished scholars and former prime ministers from Malaysia and Thailand to Hat Yai this week for a conference to look at ways to address the complexity of the southern problems.
But the conference failed to get any attention from Prime Minister Yingluck, who in her first year of governing the country has only visited the region twice, each time a day trip.
Such reluctance epitomises the state of denial of Thailand's leaders as a whole towards the deep South crisis, which has claimed more than 5,100 casualties.
Duncan McCargo, an expert in Southeast Asian politics, said it was time for the Thai leadership to confront the truth about the southern Muslims' real political aspirations and to adopt political solutions to defuse the crisis.
Thailand's violence is now ranked the third most serious in the world after Iraq and Afghanistan, noted Mr McCargo, a professor from the school of politics and international studies at Leeds University in England.
The legitimacy deficit of the government is worsening in the deep South, he said.
Like its predecessor, the now-defunct People's Power Party that was set up after the dissolution of the Thai Rak Thai Party, the current administration has announced that it will recognise some degree of autonomy in the Muslim-dominated far South.
There is then no reason why it should refuse to accept local frustrations and continue to blame the violence on criminal networks, said the British scholar, who has spent some years in the restive region.
Using the flood problems and the need to amend the constitution and foster political reconciliation as excuses to avoid tackling the southern crisis does not work, he said. "It's time to deliver bold initiatives. The proposals are already on the plate," Mr McCargo said.
Asst Prof Srisompob Jitpiromsri, a southern expert at Prince of Songkla University, said the Pattani Peace Process is an alternative platform that is open for all stakeholders from different religions and occupations to build common ground.
He rebutted the notion in security quarters that the Pattani Peace Process favours Muslims. The dialogue is actually chaired by Prasit Meksuwan, an outspoken teacher and a Buddhist.
The talks mobilised by civil society have also shown both the security authorities and sympathisers of the "movement" that peace talks, rather than violent propaganda, reflect the aspirations of local people.
The Pattani Peace Process is an arena where people can safely express their aspirations and where possible solutions can emerge in the face of flip-flop policies from various governments.
"This is the right and only way to develop any long-lasting solutions," said Prof Srisompob.
However, though the southern crisis demands bold initiatives, Chaiwat Satha-Anand, the chairman of the Thailand Research Fund's Strategic Non-Violence Commission, does not foresee the Yingluck administration straying away from piecemeal measures.
"The southern problems are part of the big question of how the government will design a relationship with the military and whether the government will dare implement its promise, which would invite clashes with the elite class," he said.
Studies by his commission also reveal similar findings to those by Deep South Watch - violence in the deep South is getting worse, thus needing a significant change in strategy, not a piecemeal approach as is the case now.
The bold initiatives and the decision to give the southern Muslims more say in the administration, however, are still viewed as too radical in a Buddhist-dominated country.
It takes a strong government to make that move, Mr Chaiwat said, not one that is crippled by a strong military and ultra-nationalist elites.
He believes there is no possibility for substantial change coming from the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre (SBPAC) set up by the previous government or the new one recently created by Ms Yingluck.
Although SBPAC chief Pol Gen Thawee Sodsong is well received by the religious and intellectual circles in the southernmost region, the perennial problem is lack of coordination.
"We need to unify policies and diversify channels and approaches to implement the same goal," said Mr Chaiwat, who is also director of Thammasat University's Peace Information Centre.
"But that is not happening because the government and the authorities still don't understand the dynamisms of the southern problems. Whenever a big clash occurs, they just stop the dialogues. This is not the right reaction."
The ugly and fearful aspect of the southern crisis, Mr Chaiwat said, is that the protracted violence has produced a numb feeling among people, followed by hopelessness.
"That's why we need multiple channels of dialogues to retain trust, which is crucial to develop political solutions and to prevent people from sliding down into deep despair," he said.