Firms must heed forex risk

Firms must heed forex risk

Central bank adopts hands-off attitude

The private sector should be more attuned to risk from foreign exchange to minimise the public sector's subsidies in the form of foreign exchange intervention, says an economic forum.

Using the interest rate as a tool to control inflation has remained the most suitable measure in the local context, but the Bank of Thailand's increase in the policy interest rate has encouraged foreign capital inflow, causing the baht to appreciate rapidly.

The central bank bought US dollars from banks to keep the baht weak but later had to issue bonds to pull back liquidity.

The baht's appreciation and interest differentials with near-zero foreign interest rates led the central bank to record operating losses.

Roong Mallikamas, the central bank's economic research director, said there are mixed opinions within the Bank of Thailand as to how much it should be worried about the losses.

But she said it is an unavoidable outcome if the central bank decides the volatility of the baht is to the extent that it must step in to smooth things out.

"We have sent a clear signal that we will allow the foreign exchange to adjust more freely. We've intervened in the market much less than before," she said.

Fundamentally, the central bank's change in philosophy should help the country to focus more on the sophistication of exports rather than generating revenue from a weak baht.

The pressure on the central bank to buy dollars from the market also eased as the euro-zone debt crisis caused investors to sidestep assets of emerging markets including Thailand.

The central bank found that operations to keep the baht weak could even draw more capital inflows, as gains from changes in the currency value exceed interest rate differentials, said Dr Roong.

It has been argued that if the Bank of Thailand changed the tool to curb inflation from foreign exchange to the interest rate, then this would result in more fluctuations in the business cycle.

The proposal might not be practical amid continuing reliance on keeping the baht weak to help exporters.

"Singapore can signal a change of currency level as their citizens expect the currency to strengthen along with continuing increase in productivity," said Dr Roong.

She cited a study showing that while the sophistication of Thai exports was on a par with China's in 2000, Thailand now lags behind that country, as the baht was the second most-stable regional currency behind the yuan in recent years.

Pipat Luengnaruemitchai, assistant managing director for research at Phatra Securities, said the prospect of a new round of assets purchase by the US Federal Reserve could present new difficulties for Thailand's monetary policy.

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