Will multiple currencies help?

The global financial crisis remains front and centre in the minds of many investors, as European nations continue to struggle with the problems of high public debt, weak bank balance sheets and fundamental structural problems among a number of members of the euro zone.

And while massive fund injections by the US Federal Reserve may have helped to reflate asset prices in the US following the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis, the flow of cheap money has resulted in volatile fund flows in other regions including Asia.

But while policy makers and experts agree that reforms to the international monetary system are needed, consensus on how remains fleeting.

Commentators and experts will gather in Bangkok this Saturday to discuss the question of whether multiple currencies can help to mitigate the next financial crisis at the 6th Asia-Europe Editors' Roundtable, organised by the Asia-Europe Foundation and the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House).

The event comes before the 10th Asem Finance Ministers' Meeting, held under the theme of "Strengthening a Dynamic Partnership, Sharing Dynamic Growth".

The Bangkok Post, an official sponsor of the Editors' Roundtable, asked three participants about their views on the global economy and the upcoming conference.


Jens Sondergaard

Do you think "multiple currencies" will be the answer to the current economic imbalances?

While helpful on the margin, flexible exchange rates are not the panacea to the current economic challenges facing the world today.

The UK experienced a substantial weakening of the pound at the onset of the financial crisis, but economic conditions continue to be dire there. Or consider the current euro-zone crisis, where I am not convinced that economic conditions will be much better in Greece or Spain if both countries swapped the common European currency with a Greek drachma or Spanish peseta. A partial break-up of the euro zone is very difficult to manage and will probably cause even harsher conditions in Southern Europe. And it is not hard to imagine that a euro-zone break-up will cause contagion effects to the rest of the world, effects that cannot be entirely offset by exchange rate movements.

What is the role of the media in reporting the global financial crisis?

The global interdependence of financial markets means market participants in all global markets needs to be aware of potential market-moving news events happening in the epicentres of the global financial crisis.

During the European debt crisis, there has been a growing appetite from the financial community for media coverage of political developments across the euro zone, not only elections and referendums but also parliamentary debates and budget votes. I think the biggest challenge for the media is to assess where to devote the journalistic resources. Small events may not seem newsworthy but could end up having moved financial markets substantially.

How do you think the financial crisis has affected relations between Asia and Europe?

I think the current trade slowdown that we are currently seeing illustrates how intricately linked the Asian and European economies are. So it is in Asia's best interest that the European policy makers make rapid progress in resolving the European debt crisis. I would also hope policy makers as well as investors based in Asia will support the efforts already made in the euro zone. In my mind, more Europe-Asia trade and financial integration is preferred to less at this point. It would be a shame if policy makers chose the path of protectionism as a remedy to the current crisis.

What are your expectations from the 6th Asia-Europe Editors' Roundtable?

The conference line-up looks most impressive, with each participant bringing something unique to the roundtable. I am personally looking forward to broadening my understanding of Asia-Europe relations as well as expanding my network of contacts in the region.

Finally, I look forward to hearing what Asia-based media think about the state of play in Europe at this moment in time.

Jens Sondergaard is a former executive director and senior European economist for fixed income research for Global Markets Europe at Nomura International.


David Pilling

Do you think "multiple currencies" will be the answer to the current economic imbalances?

I'm not sure "answer" is the right term. But it seems likely that at the very least, the yuan will eventually be an important currency for trade settlement and in the long run a reserve currency too. The economic balance of the world is shifting and, in time, the mix of influential currencies will reflect that. Within the BRICS nations [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa], even the rouble is staging something of a comeback. It is now being used to settle a substantial portion of trade among countries belonging to the former Soviet Union. But the process is slow and tends to lag the emergence of new economic powerhouses. Until China frees up its capital account, the yuan will not play a significant role as a reserve currency. There are many reasons why Beijing may not want to free up the capital account _ from loss of control over interest rates to fear of capital flight _ so all this could take much longer than some expect. In Europe, the emergence of multiple currencies would be a signal that the European project had unravelled.

What is the role of the media in reporting the global financial crisis?

In general, before 2007, the media were too trusting in the prevailing theories of the infallibility of markets and the power of markets to self-correct. Since the collapse of Lehman, the media have had to wisen up and get better at explaining complex financial concepts _ from quantitative easing to Basel III _ in language everyone can understand. Because of the rolling crisis in the US and now Europe, finance has moved from the business pages onto the front page. The media's role is to get the balance right: to be cynical and disbelieving yet avoid hype and continual headlines about "last-ditch" efforts and crisis summits. Business journalists need to try to understand what's going on and then transmit it to readers in clear language.

How do you think the financial crisis has affected relations between Asia and Europe?

There was a time when Europe looked to some Asians like a possible model for future Asian integration. Much of the sheen has come off that model. In that sense, the financial crisis has helped to even the relationship between Asia and the US on the one hand and Asia and Europe on the other. Occasionally that involves a certain Asian triumphalism or schadenfreude. Some in Asia are understandably resentful that while the West _ in the form of the International Monetary Fund _ tried to impose austerity on Asia during the 1997 crisis, its chosen remedy for itself is to crank up the printing presses. There are not a few Asians who expect this all to end in tears. It's also important to realise that there is no "Asia". Japan and China, South Korea and India would approach all these questions from very different starting points. The resulting multidimensional relationships are in great flux.

What are your expectations from the 6th Asia-Europe Editors' Roundtable?

The best forum of this type involves a frank exchange of ideas so that people can learn from each other and perhaps rethink _ or at least vigorously test _ their assumptions. If journalists are better informed and better equipped to write about our complex world, it can only help illuminate the opaque areas of finance that _ for better or for worse _ have become the stuff of global of news.

David Pilling is the Asia editor at the "Financial Times" newspaper.


Xu Qiyuan

Do you think "multiple currencies" will be the answer to the current economic imbalances?

I think a super-sovereign reserve currency is the best solution in theory. But it could hardly to be carried out. From a practical point of view, multiple currencies are the essential condition to resolve the current imbalances. The multiple currencies could probably alleviate the contradictions between the demand and supply of the reserve currency. However, the result of the multiple currencies game could be a multiple equilibrium. A good case for the equilibrium is that the main currencies are restrained by the multiple competitions, and at the same time the supply of the reserve currency meets the demand. At the same time, there could be another bad case. The competition among the multiple could lead to a situation of competitive devaluation. It has happened in history, during World Wars I and II. Therefore, besides multiple currencies, a well-behaved exchange rate coordination mechanism should be established.

How do you think the financial crisis has affected relations between Asia and Europe?

In the case of relations between China and Europe, change happens on two sides. On the one hand, the growth rate of China's exports to Europe has declined remarkably, and the FDI [foreign direct investment] from Europe has grown up in a very slow manner.

On the other hand, China's imports from Europe keep growing at a rather high rate of about 30% in both 2010 and 2011. The ODI [outward direct investment] from China to Europe has also rocketed in recent years. The amount reached US$82.5 billion in 2011, 56 times the level in 2003.

This great change reveals that Asia's market and capital dependence on Europe has eased to some extent. In turn, Asia nowadays provides more and more market and capital to Europe.

What are your expectations from the 6th Asia-Europe Editors' Roundtable?

I hope all the friends from Asia and Europe can reach a better mutual understanding.

Dr Xu Qiyuan is secretary-general of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Research Center for International Finance.

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