What to watch for as US election results pour in
- Published: 7/11/2012 at 12:53 AM
- Online news:
WASHINGTON : Here's a guide to what to watch for in the US election which concludes Wednesday, Thailand time.
NOTE: All times are Thailand times
POLLS CLOSE: The continental United States covers four times zones from east to west. The first polling stations close at 7am in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Polls close in California and several other western states at 11am.
Everyone will be watching for early results in the battleground state of Virginia as a potential bellwether of the night ahead.
At 7:30am polls close in North Carolina and all-important Ohio. A win for Romney in North Carolina, one of the more conservative swing states, would keep his hopes alive. But no Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio, and a loss there would put Romney in a massive hole.
Others will start to fall into place after 8am, when the most populous swing state, Florida, closes along with most other eastern states. An Obama win in Florida would be monumental for his re-election hopes, as polls have shown the Sunshine State leaning to Romney in recent weeks.
West Coast states generally close three hours later.
RESULTS: This year, the nation's broadcast networks ABC, CBS and NBC, plus cable giants CNN and FOX, are conducting exit polls of some 25,000 voters, mainly in key states. Those figures, together with telephone polls and vote counts from precincts, will be used in formulating state predictions, which are made only after polls close.
Partial results will be posted by some states, and networks will show such results ahead of predicting the state's winner.
KEY STATES: A candidate must win 270 of 538 electoral votes to clinch the White House. Eleven states, collectively representing a jackpot of 146 electoral votes, are up for grabs, according to RealClearPolitics.com.
As a measure of how tight the race is this year, Obama won every one of these states in 2008. Of the 11, Obama's campaign says traditional Democrat states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in his column. But Republicans have made late campaign moves there.
THE OBAMA SCENARIO: Based on recent poll averages, Obama is a lock in 18 states totaling 201 electoral votes. He has notable leads in Michigan (16 electoral votes) Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). If Obama holds those states, he needs just Ohio (18) and Iowa (6) to win re-election. Or just Florida (29).
Look for Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15) as key early tests; if Obama wins one of them, it'll be a long day for Romney.
THE ROMNEY SCENARIO: The challenger's path to victory is narrower. He is assured 24 states representing 191 electoral votes, leaving him 79 short. If Obama holds Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Romney must win two of the three biggest toss-ups - Florida, Ohio and Virginia - as well as most of the other battlegrounds.
Look for New Hampshire (4) as a key early test; it's small, but potentially indicative of how the night may turn for Romney.
CONGRESS: All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are 33 seats in the Senate. Republicans are expected to hold the House. The Democrats' 53-47 majority in the Senate is more tenuous. A race to watch is the Massachusetts battle between Republican incumbent Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren. Other key Senate contests are in Indiana, Missouri and Virginia.
EARLY VOTING: More than 30 per cent of Americans voted before Tuesday - either absentee or in person at early election polls.
RECOUNT?: Each state has its own recount rules. In the 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, some Florida counties launched recounts while others did not. With the prospect of very close results in some states, phalanxes of lawyers on each side are prepared to bring legal action, raising the potential for final result delays.
THE OHIO QUESTION: A nightmare scenario may be brewing in crucial Ohio, where authorities sent absentee ballot applications to every voter. People who applied for such ballots but then decide to vote in person will be required to cast provisional ballots that are sealed until it can be proven that they haven't already voted.
Some 200,000 provisional ballots may be cast, and state law does not allow them to be opened until Nov 17.
Complicating the count are mail-in ballots, which can arrive as late as Nov 16 so long as they are post-marked by Nov 5.
And if the results are within 0.5 percentage points, an automatic recount of all ballots is triggered.