Thai exports are expected to end this year at 4.5-5% growth after shipments climbed at the fastest pace in more than a year in October as the economy recovered from last year's floods and global demand improved.
Shipments rose 15.57% last month from a year earlier to US$19.52 billion after climbing only 0.2% in September.
Srirat Rastapana, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said the recovery of the industrial sector after the floods, signs of recovery in the US economy and growing shipments to new markets helped lift exports.
Shipments rose in every market except China and some European countries, with the industrial sector rising 24.3% to $12.417 billion, mainly for auto exports which jumped 53.4% in October from a year earlier. Electronics gained 23% a year earlier.
Exports of agricultural goods dropped 9% last month to $3.3 billion mainly because of limp rubber and frozen shrimp sales.
The department reported imports rose 21.61% from last October to $21.99 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $2.46 billion.
For the first 10 months of the year, Thai exports saw a marginal increase of 0.34% from the same period last year to $191.86 billion, with imports totalling $206.11 billion, up 7.15%. The trade deficit for the period was $515.05 billion.
Ms Srirat expects exports to increase more than 10% in November and December, with growth this year reaching 4.5% to 5%.
Aat Pisanwanich, director of the International Trade Studies Centre, said it would not be a surprise for Thai exports to grow more than 10% in the fourth quarter, as the floods last year left a low base.
Shipments in October 2011 contracted 1.39% to $16.89 billion, with figures in November and December worth $15 billion each, down 12.91% and 8.15%, respectively, from the same month a year earlier.
"Thai export growth could reach 5% this year and 5-6% in 2013," said Mr Aat.
"The world economy next year will remain fragile and Thai export prospects are not that bright."
The department is to meet Thai trade officials from worldwide offices and the private sector from tomorrow until Friday to set the country's 2013 export target.
Ms Srirat said the target should be realistic, taking into account the world's economic prospects and the euro-zone debt crisis.