Upbeat week ends with MSCI-Influenced bang

Recap: The Stock Exchange of Thailand outperformed regional peers and moved upward throughout last week, ending with a flourish on Friday. The index set a new 16-year high in the morning session, supported by foreign demand for large-cap stocks in the MSCI Global index and institutional buying for RMFs and LTFs.

The SET index moved in a range of 1,290.85 and 1,328.27 points and closed at 1,324.04, up 3.3% from the previous week, in daily average trade worth 41.55 billion baht (77 billion on Friday alone). Foreign investors were net buyers of 2.29 billion baht and brokers bought 4.39 billion. Local institutions were net sellers of 827.5 million baht and retail investors sold 5.86 billion.

Big movers: New listing JMT Network Services (JMT), the debt management arm of the mobile phone distributor Jaymart, broke the 300% ceiling from its IPO price of 4 baht on the first day, and closed the week at 11.20 baht a share.

Demand was also strong for large-cap shares such as ADVANC (up 10.83% to 220 baht) and SCB (up 3.83% to 162.50 baht) as the MSCI Global index gave them additional weight. Four newcomers to the index _ AOT, CPN, BGH and MAKRO _ all topped 4 billion baht in turnover last Friday. Bangkok Land (BLAND) remained tops in trading volume, up 2.44% to 1.26 baht.

Newsmakers: In the US, the Obama administration and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives reached a deadlock over how to prevent the country going over the "fiscal cliff", US$600 billion worth of spending cuts and tax increases starting in January 2013.

- The US economy grew 2.7% in Q3, faster than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said in a report that nevertheless pointed to a weaker fourth quarter.

- Unemployment in the euro zone hit a record high at 11.7% in October.

- The Department of Special Investigation (DSI) said a preliminary investigation found no irregularities in its probe of alleged price collusion in the NBTC's 3G auction.

- The Bank of Thailand left its policy rate on hold at 2.75% as expected, saying the economy was performing better than previously forecast.

- At least 50,000 orders are expected at the Thailand International Motor Expo, which plays a key role in helping auto companies maximise sales before the year-end.

- Thai factory output in October rose for the first time in five months, but the 36.1% year-on-year gain was from the rock-bottom base of flood-plagued October 2011.

- PTTEP set the price of its new offering, the largest in Thai history, at 142 baht per share after book building. A total of 650 million ordinary shares will be offered to eligible shareholders at a ratio of 1 existing ordinary share to 0.195783 newly issued shares, from today through noon on Thursday.

- Subscriptions for IPO shares of the cosmetics and skincare retailer Beauty Community end today at 8 baht per share. The company will sell 82.5 million shares, which will begin trading on Dec 12.

- Arrow Syndicate, a top-three player in the domestic electrical-pipe market, expects its IPO of 45 million shares to be listed on the MAI this year, with facility expansion planned for next year. Proceeds of up to 50 million baht are to be used for business expansion, debt repayment and working capital.

- Pruksa Real Estate says it is concentrating on managing its financial structure and firming up the business after facing the flood crisis last year as it targets annual growth of 10-20%.

- Robinson Department Store plans to open five stores in both 2013 and 2014 after sales this year were forecast to surge 20% to 20 billion baht.

- Berli Jucker Plc, a manufacturing and trading firm, expects revenue growth of 15-20% next year and will spend 6 billion to finance production expansion over the next five years. This year's revenue will increase by 15% from last year's 31.8 billion baht.

- The TV production house Workpoint Entertainment and satellite dish leader PSI Holdings will team up to run a satellite TV station and cash in on the growing sector both domestically and abroad.

Coming up this week: Closely watched indicators will be reported by several major economies including the US, EU, China, Japan, France and Australia. Figures will include EU GDP, purchasing managers' indices in the US, China and Germany, inflation and retail trade data.

Stocks to watch: Phillip Securities recommended investors look for beneficiaries of the motor show and year-end spending plays.

- Asia Plus Securities says the SET price/earnings ratio has reached a relatively high 15 times, raising the risk of fund outflows. It suggests investors focus on high-dividend stocks such as DCC, TICON, INTUCH and TFUND, as well as stocks expected to be included in the SET50 such as TTW, KK and JAS. As well, ROJNA and PS should be held in the portflio.

Technical view: Asia Plus sees support at 1,314 and resistance at 1,352 points. Tisco Securities sees support at 1,310 and resistance at 1,360 points.

About the author

Writer: Nuntawun Polkuamdee & Darana Chudasri