The export sector will likely return to double-digit growth next year, driving the Thai economy, says the Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research).
Deputy managing director Pimonwan Mahujchariyawong said the centre projects export growth of 12.5% in 2013 compared with 4% this year.
The improvement will be supported by the strong economy in Asia and the coming Asean Economic Community (AEC) in 2016, she said.
"Most of the export value will go to AEC markets and China as Western economies weaken," said Ms Pimonwan.
She said China's economy has been recovering in the fourth quarter and is expected to grow by 8.1% next year from 7.8% this year.
But K-Research projects Thailand's domestic consumption will slow to 3.5% next year after peaking earlier this year.
Domestic consumption grew by 5.7% this year as a result of the government's stimulus programmes, particularly the first-time car buyer tax rebate, said Ms Pimonwan.
Government outlays next year will likely include infrastructure investment and the beginning of water management project, but budget disbursement has been delayed due to several factors.
Ms Pimonwan expects the inflation rate will rise next year due to the higher daily minimum wage, the end of some government energy price subsidies and a higher Ft charge. But global oil prices will likely remain static, decelerating inflationary pressure.
Thailand's headline inflation and core inflation rates next year are forecast at 3.3% and 2.4%, respectively, down from 3% and 2.1% this year.
K-Research also projects the average Dubai crude price will stand at US$108 barrel in 2013, down from $109 this year.