Status quo on N. Korea fails

Status quo on N. Korea fails

What can you give as a holiday prize to a rogue nation that already has everything _ sanctions-wise? This is now a serious question for the world community. Last week's successful missile launch by North Korea made clear that US President Barack Obama's official policy of "strategic patience" toward Pyongyang is no longer a choice. Neighbours and the United Nations can be under no illusion that third-generation leader Kim Jong-Un is as determined to make North Korea a military adversary as his father and grandfather were.

The latest Kim to rule the hermit nation watched as his military and scientists fired a Unha-3 rocket. Its parts separated perfectly, in the Yellow Sea and Philippine Sea. It lifted a satellite of some sort into orbit. The launch itself was peaceful and threatened no country. However, it was clear the ultimate intention was to augment existing confrontation. The UN had long banned Pyongyang from making or launching such rockets. Even China expressed its regret.

The launch marked the first anniversary of the death of Kim Jong-Il and the royal-like succession of his son, Mr Jong-Un. It is clear that the young ruler of North Korea has the same intentions and policy objectives as the Kims before him. North Korea has had war, negotiations, diplomacy, confrontation and heavy sanctions. Nothing has made Pyongyang less surly, unfriendly or dangerous.

South Korean analysts believe one word sums up the difference between the earlier failure and last week's success of the North Korean missile: Iran. Under the euphemistic "bilateral scientific and technological cooperation agreement" signed three months ago, Pyongyang obtained access to Tehran's Russian technology. The two countries have long been ideological allies, but only this year have made the friendship mutual, and militarily reciprocal.

War with the isolationist state is not an option. Shipments of aid, imposition of sanctions, diplomatic entreaties and logic about international cooperation have clearly failed. It has been 12 years since Thailand led Pyongyang into the Asean Regional Forum, another non-starter. Kim Il-Sung, Jong-Il and now Jong-Un have pushed on toward militarisation, hostility, intercontinental missiles and the nuclear weapons to sit atop them.

Mr Obama's attempt at strategic patience lies in tatters. It has merely provided the time for Pyongyang to develop ever more fearsome weapons systems. South Korea will have a new and probably less confrontational president early next year. Pyongyang, however, always has been impervious to Seoul's policies, whether friendly or challenging.

The likely outcome of last week's North Korean missile adventure is hardly reassuring. Mr Obama's military "pivot" to Asia means more backing for Japan's position _ which is extremely anti-Pyongyang. The region seems likely to have more armaments pouring in, and another round of defence spending to account for North Korea's dangerous potential.

Having a neighbour with nuclear arms, an intercontinental delivery system and a bad attitude is the opposite of peaceful. Yet the current North Korean leader has shown no sign he will respond positively either to an economic carrot or a diplomatic stick. Thailand must continue its urging that North Korea join the international community. The UN probably will stick even harsher sanctions on the Pyongyang regime. The effect of tough sanctions so far has been nothing, or perhaps even counter-productive.

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