The Commerce Ministry has set its official export growth target for 2013 in a range of 8-9% to US$250.41 billion, similar to the forecasts of other institutions.
The ministry said expansion in 2013 would be driven mainly by healthy growth in automobiles, electrical appliances, rubber products, construction raw materials, canned and processed seafood, raw and processed poultry.
The two best performers are expected to be the automotive industry with 15% growth from an already impressive performance in 2012, and processed chicken, with a 12% rise forecast.
The ministry expects to end 2012 with export growth of 4.17%, up from $228.83 billion in 2011. This is based on the assumption that exports will be worth $20 billion in each of November and December, according to Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom.
For the first 10 months of this year, Thai exports increased marginally by 0.34% from the same period last year to $191.86 billion, with imports totalling $206.11 billion, up 7.15%. The trade deficit was $515.05 billion.
Mr Boonsong said the key risk factors would stem mainly from Europe, as the troubled region is unlikely to address its debt crisis in the short term.
Domestically, another key area of concern is the higher daily minimum wage which is due to increase to 300 baht nationwide on Jan 1, he added.
"Next year's forecast by the ministry this time is not so different from those of other institutes," he said.
The Bank of Thailand projects export growth next year at about 9%, with the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) forecasting 12.2% growth, the Fiscal Policy Office 10.5%, World Bank 10-12%, and the Thai National Shippers' Council (TNSC) 5%.
Mr Boonsong's predecessor Kittiratt Na-Ranong, now finance minister, caused a furore last year when he admitted to having told a "white lie" when he predicted export growth of 15% for 2012. He said he knew such a forecast was unrealistic but did not want to dampen the morale of businesses.
The ministry pledged to update and evaluate the country's export performance after May next year so that the government could fine-tune its export strategies.
In addition, Mr Boonsong said the International Trade Promotion Department had established a centre to monitor world economic conditions and evaluate possible impacts on Thai exports.
Next year, he added, the government is also poised to increase its export focus on Asean, Asia, the Middle East and South Africa where purchasing power is strong.