Deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has given the government the go-ahead to proceed with the planned referendum to rewrite the 2007 constitution in its entirety, according to Noppadon Pattama, Thaksin's legal adviser and close aide.
Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung has won support for his proposal to alter the constitution bit-by-bit, but has failed to understand that what Thaksin Shinawatra wants, he will get from the government when it holds a charter referendum. Mr Chalerm believes a wholesale charter change will not win support from the people. PAWAT LAOPAISARNTAKSIN
So there should not be any lingering doubt in the mind of Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung about why his well-intended advice to the government to drop the referendum plan and to opt for section-by-section charter amendments was coldly shrugged off by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and right on down to Pheu Thai MPs and even the red-shirt leaders (except for a small minority).
He should know better that the famous mantra, "Thaksin thinks, Pheu Thai acts", is not for nothing.
Mr Noppadon last Friday chaired a meeting of the party's strategic and public relations panel which is exploring ways to amend the charter and to stage a referendum.
Unlike Mr Chalerm, who doubts the government will be able to muster a minimum of 24 million votes needed to pave the way for a charter rewrite, he appears rather confident that with three to four months before the referendum the government will be able to create an awareness among the people about the need to overhaul the charter and to convince them to come out to cast their votes in the referendum through a massive publicity blitz.
The lawyer made an interesting remark pertaining to Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva's call for a public boycott of the referendum.
"It's like someone who shouts 'thief, thief!' as people are going into a temple to clean a Buddha statue," Mr Noppadon said. However, the Democrats might suspect those people might actually get inside the temple to hijack the Buddha statue and not clean it up.
But as wished by the "Man in Dubai", all the mechanisms in the government, the Pheu Thai Party and the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship appear to be in sync to go full throttle for the referendum, tentatively scheduled for May.
The referendum panel recently set up by the cabinet is due to meet for the first time today at Government House to discuss all the legal implications pertaining to the referendum, how to stage it and what question to ask.
According to the referendum law, the government is required to inform the public about the constitution and why it needs to be amended before a referendum can be staged.
Meanwhile, red-shirt co-leaders Arisman Pongruangrong, Col Apiwan Viriyachai and Vice Finance Minister Jiradet Vorapienkul have come up with a publicity campaign, called "3-baht democracy", to create public awareness about the referendum.
Under the project, millions of postcards will be distributed to members of the public urging them to support the referendum and to write back and have the postcards returned to the red-shirt co-leaders.
The first batch of the postcards was distributed at a concert staged by the UDD at Bonanza resort in Pak Chong district of Nakhon Ratchasima on Saturday.
The rest will be distributed together with the government's New Year's postcards.
Besides the publicity campaigns and public hearings, no one in the government, even Prime Minister Yingluck herself, is sure or has said for the record that the government will be able to get the 24 million votes needed to rewrite the charter.
House Speaker Somsak Kiatsuranont posted a message on a social media network last week expressing his support for the referendum but admitting that it will be very difficult to get the required votes.
Citing previous polls, he said there are only two large groups of people who turn out to cast their ballots _ one is supportive of the government and the other is against the government. Of these, less than 50% are pro-government, he said.
Senate Speaker Nihom Wairatchapanich and Sodsri Sattayatham, a member of the Election Commission, have backed Mr Chalerm's proposed option for section-by-section constitutional amendments as practical and possible.
Mrs Sodsri cited the Democrat-led government's success in amending some sections of the charter regarding the election.
Despite the uncertainty about the referendum option, why is the government _ or Thaksin, to be more accurate _ so determined to proceed with the option?
My guess is that this is a win-win gamble and they believe they have nothing to lose.
If they manage to get the minimum 24 million votes in the referendum, it will be a big morale boost for the government and, perhaps, a personal triumph for the deposed former prime minister and his prospects of coming home.
The success will further strengthen the government's political stability and ensure another term in office for the Pheu Thai Party.
What if the referendum is a flop? The government can be accused by its critics of wasting the 2 billion baht needed to stage the referendum.
There is no law or tradition which says the government must quit because it loses a referendum.
Although a loss may have an impact on its morale, the government can still carry on with its work.
The only big loss in such a scenario is that Thaksin's homecoming prospects will have to be postponed a while longer.
But that should not pose any problem for him as he has said previously that he was already used to living away from home.
Veera Prateepchaikul is a former Editor, Bangkok Post.