The worst is yet to come for Bangkok's traffic. Over the past few months, I have spent twice as much time as before stuck in traffic jams. Although I am not an expert, I believe this has something to do with the government's first-car scheme. The programme allows new car buyers to claim tax rebates of up to 100,000 baht per vehicle per person. Since its inception, more than one million new vehicles have been purchased, or about 30,000 new cars a day. By the end of this year, the number of the "first cars" is likely to exceed 1.2 million.
The project began on Sept 16 last year and was originally scheduled to end on Monday. Surveys found it has attracted two major groups of customers: medium and high-income earners who want to buy cars for their children or family members, and low-income earners who could not have otherwise afforded to pay so much for their first cars.
Those eligible for the first-car scheme must be Thais aged 21 and over who had never owned vehicles before Sept 16 last year, and wanted a car or pick-up truck with an engine of no more than 1.5 litres. The purchased vehicles must be locally assembled and priced at no more than 1 million baht. The participants would be repaid no more than 100,000 baht as tax rebates one year after the purchases. They must own their vehicles for at least five years.
So far, more than 1.05 million new car owners have registered for tax rebates totalling 77.1 billion baht under the scheme, according to the Excise Department. So far, the department has returned 2 billion baht to more than 30,000 people under the scheme.
Lately, the scheme has been extended from the end of this year to the end of March, allowing those receiving vehicles late to claim the rebates. The number of claims has lately declined from about 4,000 a day to 2,000 a day.
Affected by the worsening traffic congestion, I wonder why the government has not supported public transportation projects like the extension of the subway and skytrain routes.
Not only Thais are questioning this. One of last week's most discussed topics on social networks in Thailand was about a Japanese official's opinion on the scheme. The man asked a Thai friend why those in the government wanted more Thais to use personal cars. He calculated that the rebated tax money may total 127 billion baht. If the sum was not returned to the first-car buyers, it could be spent more effectively. For example, the money could be used for constructing the Hua Lamphong-Bang Khae-Phutthamonthon Sai 4 subway route (49.9 billion baht), the Bang Sue-Tha Phra subway route (25.1 billion baht), the Thailand Cultural Centre-Bang Kapi subway route (55 billion baht), another international airport, a high-speed train system nationwide or providing free education for kindergarten to university students for five to 10 years.
Unfortunately, reality is completely different. The new cars from the scheme will surely cause more consumption of petrol and gas, air pollution and traffic problems. This may prompt the construction of more roads instead of public transportation.
The mistake is irreversible, I believe, while air pollution has become worse in Bangkok like many places over the world. Air pollution is now on the world's top 10 list of killers. In 2010, 3.2 million people worldwide died from air pollution, up from 800,000 in 2000, according to a Global Burden of Disease analysis published in The Lancet medical journal.
In 2010, more than 2.1 million people in Asia died prematurely from air pollution, mostly from diesel soot from cars and trucks. Other causes were smog from power plants and dust from construction. Of those deaths, 1.2 million were in China and East Asia and 712,000 in South Asia, including India.
Nonetheless, many people agree with the government's first-car scheme. Some of them reason that they need to use personal cars to travel far since public transportation in the city is inadequate. Some others think the scheme will benefit the local economy.
They may be right, at least in the short run. According to the Finance Ministry, during October and November the government brought 312 billion baht in cash to the country's coffers, 20.7% or 53.5 billion baht up from the same period of the previous year. The major factor was the collection of more excise taxes on cars. The increase reflects the continual growth of the local economy, the ministry states.
Unfortunately, the first-car scheme has apparently not benefited all businesses. Jiraboon Witthayasingh, secretary-general of the Confederation of Thai Lifestyle Products, reportedly revealed that the industry worth 40 billion baht has not enjoyed sales in the last quarter of the year like before since consumers have been more careful saving money to pay for their cars.
Although the scheme is said to have more or less benefited the economy and brought convenience to many commuters, I still don't buy it. Having been driving personal cars for more than 25 years, I decided about a year ago to opt for public transportation and bicycles.
My current car will be my last. The change will not only save my travel time and fuel costs but also make Bangkok streets less congested and the air less dirty, even if only by a fraction.
Pichaya Svasti is a travel writer for Life.