The soothsayers who predicted the world would come to an end on Dec 21 definitely got it wrong. We are still here and the world appears to be in relatively good shape. Well, as good as it was last week anyway.
Similarly the pundits who predicted the price of gold would break through US$2,000 (61,300 baht) per ounce any week soon _ and have been doing so for a number of years now _ have also been disappointed. It will almost certainly happen but the timing is anyone's guess.
In a year where the London Olympics were a major success and Barack Obama was returned to power for a second term, is your world a better place after experiencing 2012?
The Year of the Dragon is almost behind us and we are looking towards the Year of the Snake, who is a keen, cunning, intelligent and wise individual. It is said that if you have a snake in your house you will never starve. The snake is a top-class mediator, making him good at business.
Maybe business is important to you. Wealth is certainly significant to us all. However, it is not necessarily as important in comparison to the other blessings we may receive in life. Maybe you have little in terms of material wealth but you can consider yourself rich because you have a wonderful history of happiness and experience. Many say that these treasures are priceless.
Money will give you all you want in material success, but it will never make you happy. You cannot buy love, health and happiness.
There have been significant political milestones in the past year, with Mr Obama succeeding in his bid to serve a further term as US president. The Chinese leadership change, once per decade, went smoothly and there was nothing unexpected. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide election and this signifies a tougher attitude toward the country's territorial dispute with China, which could be worrisome for Asia. South Korea this month elected its first female president, who vowed to be a people's president.
These events will have an effect on world economies and this eventually will ripple down to the expat in Asia, for good or otherwise.
Egypt continues to show instability and I have heard thoughts that, now the people have won their freedom they are not sure what to do with it. Those thoughts appear quite valid. The Arab Spring is certainly continuing and Syria is in civil war. Many fear that this may spread, and if it does there may be a major Middle East disruption, creating worse economic waves that would spread universally.
Thailand appears to be doing relatively well, with the absence of floods being a welcome relief this year. Parts of Isan have now been declared drought areas, leaving many feeling there is no real balance any more. However, this seems to follow the rest of the world which continues to experience weather trends totally against the norm.
"Global warming," I hear you say. Hurricane Sandy was a fine example of a one-off event and despite hitting the east coast of North America with a vengeance, the initial recovery was relatively quick. Of course there are always longer term plans to be completed in such recoveries.
The Thai baht has not been subject to wild swings against other currencies this year and although most expats feel it is overvalued, at least it has been relatively stable. GDP growth will finish at a respectable level above 4%, which would be the envy of any Western economy. The Thai equity market has been one of the best performers in the world this year, rising more than 30% from the end of 2011.
Europe continues to have economic problems, although there has not been any major development or prospect arising that Greece will leave the euro currency. The difficulties are still there, and although market sentiment has not been jittery of late, it does not mean things have been resolved. One of these fine days market sentiment, which appears from nowhere, will rear its head again and we will all be reminded of the severity of the situation by the swing this will cause.
So are we in a calm before the storm? Even though there have been a number of upsets, they have been quickly dealt with at least on the surface, bringing normality back to us in relatively short periods of time.
Some theorists look back at very long term trends and believe that we are repeating a trend of the late '60s and early '70s. This was a period of low inflation and low interest rates. As we sped into the '70s, economies were steered by devaluing currencies, which had a similar effect as the quantitative easing, otherwise known as money printing and asset buying, which central banks favour today.
This stimulated domestic demand in Western countries and led the way to higher inflation and interest rates. The upward spiral continued and economies found themselves facing very high inflation and interest rates. During those times inflation fuelled equities, resulting in markets providing dynamic returns.
Are we headed towards a similar situation now? We may be, especially if we see further quantitative easing and more countries joining the bandwagon in stimulating their economies this way.
Some of the fundamental differences from the 1970s are that interest rates are currently below the inflation rate. This surely means that when interest rates rise, borrowers will be placed in a situation where debt becomes unaffordable very quickly. When quantitative easing is carried out, the banks involved sell bonds to investors. In recent history the investors have been mainly Asian countries, resulting in much of the Western debt now being owned by China and Co.
If we do speed into such times there will be opportunities for investors to make substantial gains in the equity markets. The problem here is that there is no real indication when it may occur. It is a question of watching for the signs and making moves when they are there.
The world's population broke through seven billion this year and surely there are going to be imminent food shortages to go with this ever-growing number. In investing terms this must be a good sign to be in food commodity investments of some sort, especially since shortages are further exacerbated by increasingly offbeat weather patterns.
There have been some disastrous events for some in the world this last year. Complacency has led to some of these. Banking scandals relating to Libor were uncovered. This had a historical effect on many global transactions. There were also anti-money laundering scandals revealed, where huge, well-respected banks were found guilty of doing just what the finance world struggles to deal with in terms of harassing its high street customers.
There have also been some surprise investment disasters and many expats have been shocked. Losses could run into a great deal of money. Unfortunately the world is not an entirely honest place; when Bernie Madoff was discovered people began to realise this. No matter how much checking is carried out, the due diligence process is often inadequate because the culprit behind the dishonest action is aware and ready for it.
All this relative low-level stability may be the prelude to a storm that could leave us all reeling. On the other hand it, could be the beginning of a sustained and stabilised period of steady recovery.
However the year finally closes, many will be glad to see the back of it and look forward to a new one with much anticipation.
Andrew Wood has been an expat in Asia for 33 years and is executive director of PFS International. His articles, which cover the complete A-Z of financial planning, are available through the PFS library to readers on request. Questions to the author can be directed to PFS International on 02-653-1971 or emailed to enquiriesthailand@fsplatinum.com.