Analysts project policy rate to stand pat

Analysts project policy rate to stand pat

With most analysts projecting the policy rate will remain unchanged at today's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), fund managers recommend investors bet on fixed-return bond funds.

Win Udomrachtavanich, the chief executive of One Asset Management, said the MPC should maintain the policy rate at 2.75%, as inflation last month rose only slightly by 0.39 percentage points to 3.63%.

Full-year inflation in 2012 stood at 3.02%.

''But the rising trend of inflation will put pressure on the MPC to cut the rate later,'' he said.

However, Mr Win still expects interest rates to remain low this year, so risk-averse investors can fix their return via three- or six-month bond funds.

He said the current risk in the stock market is the sale of long-term equity funds and retirement mutual funds after their prices hiked drastically last year.

Mr Win said the net return on short-term debt instruments such as foreign bank deposits and bills of exchange over six months will be about 3%. Asset management firms including One Asset also plan to roll over funds when they expire.

Maybank Kim Eng Securities research agrees the policy rate will likely remain unchanged, as the central bank has no reason to ease monetary policy at the moment.

As well, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have meetings tomorrow, and Maybank expects both will maintain their interest rates.

KGI Securities research overweights the property sector in 2013 on the expectation of strong net profit growth, with low and mid-level units leading the market recovery and interest rates expected to remain low.

Pruksa Real Estate is its stock pick.

HSBC expects inflationary pressure to pick up from the second quarter due to the nationwide daily minimum wage increase to 300 baht and strong credit growth.

Kasikornbank forecasts the central bank will cut the policy rate to 2.5% in the second half of the year, given hints of a possible easing of the monetary policy and shaky global economic growth.

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