NESDB defends data, blames post-flood high base

NESDB defends data, blames post-flood high base

Thailand's key economic agency has defended its projection methods, saying they are in line with international standards, after the Bank of Thailand raised question about some of its data released last week.

Arkhom: economic projections are in line iwth international standards.

The central bank claimed there were large discrepancies when compared to its own statistics.

The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said its practices are in line with world standards under the United Nation's System of National Accounts and the Monetary Fund.

It insisted on the credibility, accuracy and transparency of its economic data, such as the country's gross domestic product.

The assurance is in response to criticism that politics might be behind the differences between the two agencies' figures.

NESDB secretary-general Arkhom Termpittayapaisith said the central bank's governor had said the NESDB's private consumption figure in the first quarter, which expanded by 4.2%, was too low.

But Mr Arkhom pointed out it was the central bank which had projected too high a growth rate of 5.8% for the item when the central bank's actual figure was only 3.7%, even lower the NESDB's figure.

Mr Arkhom added improved farm prices could raise the private consumption index to over 4%, even though private consumption has slowed since 2011.

He noted that there were several factors affecting the household consumption figure in the first quarter of this year. A key factor is the high base of 2012, when people spent large sums to repair houses and properties in the first quarter following massive floods late in 2011.

Another factor bloating the 2012 figure is the government's compensation for flood victims, which ended in the last quarter.

Another element distorting consumption in 2012 was the first-time car buyer scheme, which saw sales of 1.2 million units last year, a level which is hard to match.

A lower number of vehicles, or 500,000 units, are expected to be delivered to customers this year.

Mr Arkhom also said while the rice-pledging scheme shored up the price of the grain, other crops saw no substantial price increases.

In the first quarter, household credit stood at 7.87 trillion baht, 2.96 trillion baht of which was from commercial banks or 37.6%. The balance was from state banks.

Net credit in the first quarter last year was 229.39 billion baht compared to 124.10 billion baht in the first quarter this year, resulting in a decrease of 105 billion baht.

Mr Arkhom said exports, which account for 70% of GDP in the first quarter, expanded by only 4.5%, far lower than the 9% target of the Commerce Ministry.

Unemployment in the first quarter was at 0.71% or 278,871. Although the figure is not alarming, there are signs that operators may cut their working hours.

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