Aberdeen Asset Management recommends investors place some assets in the US stock market to take advantage of the recovery of the world's largest economy.
Pongtharin Sapayanon, a fixed-income fund manager at Aberdeen, said the US economy is expected to rebound next year.
Aberdeen expects the US Federal Reserve will begin a stimulus reduction about December, which would be later than global analysts' prediction of September.
The US economy is showing signs of recovery, with improving labour and housing markets.
However, tightening of fiscal policy could become a threat to economic recovery, said Mr Pongtharin.
"The Federal Open Market Committee could reduce quantitative easing but maintain low interest rates until next year," he said.
"The Fed expects the unemployment rate will reduce from between 7.2% and 7.3% in 2013 to 6.5% to 6.8% in 2014, and it will start raising interest rates once unemployment falls below 6%, so interest rates are on an upward trend."
Europe will take longer to recover, while China's economy is now slowing down.
Aberdeen forecasts global gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 3% this year, with developed markets expanding by 1%, the US by 1.8%, emerging markets by 4.9% and Asia-Pacific excluding Japan by 6.1% but the EU shrinking by 0.6%.
Next year, the economies of all countries are expected to improve, with GDP growth of 3.8% for the world, 1.9% for advanced countries, 2.7% for the US, 0.5% for the EU, 5.5% for emerging markets and 6.5% for Asia-Pacific excluding Japan.
Aberdeen projects the Bank of Thailand will leave its policy rate unchanged for the rest of this year after a 25-basis-point cut to 2.5% at its May 29 meeting.
It also forecasts Thai economic growth of 4.3% to 4.8% this year after GDP grew at an annual rate of 5.3% in the first quarter.
About the author
- Writer: Nuntawun Polkuamdee
Position: Business Reporter