Ceasefire is a game-changer

Ceasefire is a game-changer

The past 50 years have been difficult times, to say the least, for the nation and especially the citizens of the deep South. Conflict has become part of life. Violence, at the best of times, has never been far away, and has often been too close. But something, at last, may be changing. The 40-day "violence-free month" negotiated for the region last week once again changes everything.

First of all, the very idea of a semi-formal ceasefire was a surprise.

The seven impossible demands made by the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) had seemed to rule out a truce. The harsh rejection by government ministers also suggested a Ramadan ceasefire was out of the question.

Enter the "facilitator" in the form of the Malaysian government, and the deal was not just signed. It was sealed and delivered smoothly, with speed.

The mechanics of how the ceasefire agreement was completed are largely unknown, but important. That is because of the obvious importance of the deal. There never has been an agreement of any kind between the Thai government and any belligerent in the deep South. The question now is whether a 40-day truce is any basis for a peace agreement.

Of course, a temporary ceasefire for the Muslim holy month is a long way from a peace pact. But the truce agreement is also crucial to any negotiations and agreement that will end rebellion, violence and separatist demands in the four southern provinces of Yala, Narathiwat, Songkhla and Pattani.

A ceasefire is possible without a peace agreement, but a peace pact is impossible without a cessation of military, militant and terrorist violence.

The three parties to the Kuala Lumpur peace talks deserve credit for negotiating the ceasefire agreement. If it succeeds as designed, three men should get thanks, if not in equal measures. Hassan Taib, the Malaysian representative of the BRN, exploited the issue for a month's worth of propaganda, but then did the right thing to agree to a truce. Lt Gen Paradorn Pattanatabutr, head of the National Security Council, stuck to the issue and succeeded, long after most of his superiors in the government gave up.

Ahmad Zamzamin bin Hashim, a Malaysian government intelligence professional, may emerge as the crucial peace catalyst. He has been the man in the middle even before the government and BRN first met formally last February. Mr Zamzamin is the official facilitator between the two parties. But it may emerge that he is in fact playing the role that the BRN demanded from the start, that the Malaysian be an actual mediator, and part of the negotiating process.Mr Zamzamin is one of the most experienced officials in the region. He has been credited openly by the Philippines for arranging a peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) for Mindanao. And it was he who announced the Ramadan ceasefire last Friday, somewhat underplaying the roles of both Mr Taib and Lt Gen Paradorn in the process.

Peace talks are due to resume in Kuala Lumpur next month. The ceasefire will determine much about the power and influence of the BRN.

A truly quiet Ramadan will show the group really can control its armed militants in the South. Huge tasks remain before peace is at hand in the deep South, but last week's Ramadan ceasefire may have brought peace a large step closer.

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