Sure win doesn't change mandate for reform

Sure win doesn't change mandate for reform

Few doubt that Hun Sen will wake up as prime minister of Cambodia on July 29, but if he wants to keep his party in power and move the country forward there is a lot of work to be done, starting with pulling off a free and fair election

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen speaks to the press after engineering a pardon for his most prominent rival, Sam Rainsy, clearing the way for the self-exiled politician to return home last week.

While the outcome seems assured, there are still expectations that next Sunday's election  -  the fifth since 1993  -  will be a milestone in developing the relatively young democratic values and political system in Cambodia. Eight political parties are on the ballots, but for all practical purposes it's a two-horse race, with Hun Sen's ruling Cambodian Peoples Party (CCP) widely predicted to outrun the opposition National Rescue Party (NRP), led by Sam Rainsy, whose pardon last week by King Norodom Sihamoni allowed him to return to Cambodia after years of exile.

But while CPP is expected to win the election with an absolute majority in parliament due to its financial resources and public outreach capacity, NRP is gaining ground. Prime Minister Hun Sen has his work cut out making good on campaign promises for political and economic reforms, and if he fails to deliver his party risks losing its dominance.

Lively political events and canvassing have been ongoing since the start of the election campaign in late June, though policy debates generally lack substance, since the political parties focus more on short-term goals and interests, rather than long-term vision and sustainable development.

However, this election is different from previous ones owing to a generally peaceful environment, increased participation of Cambodian youth in shaping future political development, and the use of social media such as Facebook. Messages delivered loudly through social media include the demand for electoral reform, especially structural improvement of the National Election Committee.

As far as policy debate is concerned, CPP emphasises peace, national reconciliation, infrastructure development, high economic performance, poverty reduction and an increasing national presence on the international stage.

For the NRP, the key priorities are economic measures geared to the common man such as promises to increase the income and improve the livelihoods of factory workers, farmers and civil servants. There are also pledges to reduce production costs by lowering energy prices and interest rates, and last but not least, to eradicate corruption. Sensitive political issues, including border rows with Vietnam and Vietnamese migrants in Cambodia, are raised by the opposition in attacking CPP.

Regarding foreign policy, both parties emphasise neutrality and non-alliance, while CPP tends to be more expansive on the principles of peaceful co-existence and international cooperation, especially within the Asean framework.

Relative Calm

The politics of personal destruction and intimidation by various means is quite common in modern Cambodian political history. This year there have been reported cases of minor violence and a series of disturbances targeted at the opposition party, and there are alleged irregularities in the voting list, political intimidation and unequal access among the different political parties to the mass media. Despite the rough and tumble nature of Cambodian politics, however, this year's campaign has  been relatively peaceful. Before the official start of the campaigns Hun Sen called on all sides to refrain from violence in favour of tolerance, calm and stability.

The international community and Cambodian civil society organisations are closely following developments to try to ensure a free and fair election.

If this scenario does not hold, Cambodia may face international pressure, particularly from the United States and Europe, as well as widespread domestic protests. It is therefore necessary for all political parties to consider what is in the national interest and play by the rules. Above all, the results of the election need be respected by all to give the victors political legitimacy and promote national reconciliation and unity. Cambodia cannot develop without the support and participation of all Cambodians from various political parties and factions.

This is important from a business and investment perspective as well. At this time there is no sign of reluctance on the part of foreign investors to expand their businesses in the country. They are confident that peace and stability will be maintained and political and economic reform will continue. The local business community generally prefers to see the status-quo maintained.

Even though the new government will likely be made up of many of the same old faces, it is by all means necessary for it to deepen public administrative reforms, with concrete policies based on the principles of inclusiveness and sustainability. To realise the vision of Cambodia being a middle-income country by 2030, the government needs to foster strong and responsive public institutions, a resilient private sector and an engaged civil society. 

If it comes about in a free and fair manner, the election next Sunday will definitely contribute to peace, stability and continued development in Cambodia. The political leadership will remain largely the same, but that does not lessen the need to sincerely implement political, social and economic reforms. Good governance, zero tolerance for corruption, environmental protection and inclusive growth are the key issues that need to be effectively implemented at all levels to keep Cambodia on a progressive path, and for CPP to stay the favourite in the next election.

Vannarith Chheang is Senior Fellow at the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace.

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