Indian voters flex muscle

Indian voters flex muscle

Both Congress and BJP have reason to be nervous ahead of 2014 national campaign as regional elections expose public discontent.

The outcome of the elections to legislative assemblies in five Indian states on Dec 8 offers two significant indicators to the possible political future of the world’s largest democracy.

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) supporters rally in New Delhi on Dec 11 after the new party's surprisingly strong performance in the state election.

The first is the emergence of a new political force born out of a popular anti-corruption movement, namely the Aam Admi Party (literally, party of ordinary people) in the country’s capital.

The second is the humiliating defeat of the grand old party, the Indian National Congress, which currently leads the ruling coalition in the central government in Delhi, and the consequent victory of its principal opponent, the right-wing, Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The five states in which polls were held were the national capital region of Delhi; Rajasthan in the west; Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in central India; and Mizoram in the northeast.

The BJP government in Madhya Pradesh managed to retain power with a two-thirds majority for a third consecutive five-year term. In neighbouring Chhattisgarh, the party also held on to power, albeit with a thin majority. In Rajasthan, the Congress was clobbered with the BJP winning a three-fourths majority in the state legislature.

While the Congress performed very well in Mizoram and returned to power with a two-thirds majority, the big surprise for the party was in Delhi where it was relegated to a poor third position after having ruled the state assembly for 15 years.

The emergence of the newly formed AAP led by Arvind Kejriwal, a former government official who was earlier active in movements to enforce the Right to Information Act and set up a people’s ombudsman (Lokpal), came as a rude shock for the Congress as well as the BJP.

Functionaries of the two largest political parties in the country had been dismissive of the anti-graft campaigner, but now they realise that many voters — especially young people — are searching for a viable political alternative and have found a home in the AAP.

The person who was perhaps most taken aback by the outcome was the matronly septuagenarian Sheila Dikshit, who had been Delhi’s chief minister for three successive terms. (Before her, no chief minister of Delhi had served more than a single five-year term.)

She certainly never imagined that she would be defeated by Mr Kejriwal, and by a resounding 25,000 votes at that. Her reputation as an efficient administrator was torn to shreds by the strong anti-incumbency wave against the central government, largely because of its inability to control food prices and also because of the widespread belief that it is corrupt.

Also acting against Ms Dikshit was the perception that law and order, especially preventing crimes against women, remained weak, although responsibility for law and order in the capital lies with the federal government and not the provincial government as in other parts of India.

Delhi has been rocked by agitation led by students after the gang-rape and death of a young woman in December 2012.

The poll result in Delhi has thrown up a “hung” assembly with no single party or alliance able to command a majority in the 70-member house. The largest party, the BJP, led by medical doctor Harsh Vardhan, has declined to form a government as it is four members short of a majority, even after including an ally.

The AAP too has refused to align itself with either the Congress (which has 8 members) or the BJP. The AAP, which has a broom as its election symbol, won 28 seats in the assembly, eight short of the majority of 36. The broom symbolises the party’s aim to clean up the mess created by old-line politicians.

Delhi is now likely to go through a period of federal rule (or president’s rule) before a new round of elections, possibly coinciding with the 16th all-India general elections scheduled for April and May.

Some political analysts believe the AAP, which is barely a year old, may be able to improve its performance in the future, not only in Delhi but in other parts of the country — where it is offering a “clean” administration. Others are not so sure as most AAP legislators lack administrative experience.

Representatives of AAP say they do not want funds from corrupt businessmen or bureaucrats but wish to fund their party and their campaigns using small voluntary donations obtained in a transparent manner from ordinary people.

Their idealism, they believe, will help bring about a paradigm shift in Indian politics. Traditional politicians, especially those belonging to the Congress and the BJP, have been frequently criticised for their dependence on slush funds obtained from affluent cronies.

AAP spokesmen say their aim is not merely to check corruption but also to make administrative structures more representative and transparent. In terms of economic policies, many of its members espouse left-of-centre positions.

The BJP, of course, sees the outcome of the elections differently. Prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, chief minister of the industrialised western India state of Gujarat, has been able to attract large crowds at his rallies. He is being projected as a “tough”, no-nonsense administrator who stands out in sharp contrast to the “dithering” and “vacillating” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

In his speeches, Modi has sharply attacked Rahul Gandhi, the 42-year-old vice-president of the Congress and son of Sonia Gandhi, widow of former premier Rajiv Gandhi (who was assassinated in May 1991).

Mr Modi has time and again derogatorily described Rahul Gandhi as a “crown prince”. The critics of the BJP leader, however, describe him as “fascist” for failing to check the anti-Muslim communal riots that took place in Gujarat in 2002.

However, many business leaders in India openly back the candidacy of Modi, who they believe will pursue market-friendly, pro-business policies if he becomes prime minister.

Those politically opposed to the BJP argue that Modi is an authoritarian and a polarising personality. They contend that one out of seven Indians who is Muslim will not support him or his party and that the BJP is extremely weak, if not virtually non-existent, as a political force in at least 200 out of the 543 constituencies in India.

Opinion is divided as to whether the assembly elections should be seen as a curtain-raiser for the general elections. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and, until recently, Delhi, are among the seven states in India where power usually oscillates between the two biggest parties.

The Congress and the BJP together have obtained roughly half the votes cast in the last five general elections held in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009. In other words, half of those who vote in India (approximately 60% of an electorate of 800 million) do not exercise their franchise in favour of either of the two biggest parties.

Moreover, in 21 out of the 28 states, parties other than the Congress and the BJP have a strong presence. Smaller regional parties could well influence the complexion of the fragmented Indian polity that is going through a prolonged phase of multi-party coalition governments.

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