Violence will only extend stalemate

Violence will only extend stalemate

ANALYSIS: Third-party intervention looks more likely

The government is likely to face a prolonged political stand-off with the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) after a series of violent attacks on anti-government protesters.

The Banthat Thong Road blast on Friday and the grenade explosion at Victory Monument yesterday are likely to push both sides further apart.

Following the Banthat Thong blast, PDRC secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban urged protesters in the South to lay siege to government offices starting on Monday.

The blockading of state offices is part of the PDRC's strategy to make Yingluck Shinawatra's caretaker administration "a failed government".

PDRC leader Sathit Wongnongtoey said the protest is entering its final stage where the public will understand the government is a liability.

Mr Sathit admitted a violence-free approach adopted by the PDRC means the protesters have limited means and resources to pressure the government. The approach takes time and strong will to succeed.

"We are prepared for a long battle. We don't know when it will end. The government has already lost its legitimacy to stay in power. It is now a matter of how it will exit," he said.

While the "Bangkok shutdown" campaign has yet to bear fruit, it is pushing the Yingluck administration into a tight corner.

According to a government source, there is some discord in the Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (Capo), which was set up to handle the protests.

Some want Mr Suthep to be arrested, but others fear this will lead to violence.

A Pheu Thai cabinet minister, who asked not to be named, said the pressure will be on the government and the prime minister if the PDRC can keep up its momentum.

But the party believed the protesters would thin out over time.

It also hoped Bangkok residents would come to resent the protesters and discourage the crowds.

The challenge is how to maintain the situation until the Feb 2 election.

A Government House source said Ms Yingluck has been trying to seek talks with Mr Suthep via military leaders and business groups.

Ms Yingluck has sent a signal she is ready to step down and postpone the election. She also wants assurances that her family will be safe.

"What is the PDRC's demand? Will they accept her resignation and an election postponement? When there is no final answer from the PDRC, it is difficult for her to resign. Talks can't begin," the source said.

Hardcore members of the pro-government United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship also pose a problem for the administration.

If they are involved in violence against the protesters, the government cannot deny responsibility.

Mr Sathit believes that if the government resorts to violence, it will put itself at a disadvantage, and "the game will soon be over".

According to political observers, the prolonged crisis may open the way for intervention by a third party. And it does not have to be a military coup.

Wutthisarn Tanchai, of the King Prajadhipok's Institute, said there is no end in sight because neither side has said what it really wants.

However, he noted if the government allows the situation to continue, it will get itself in more trouble.

"There may be outside intervention in this kind of situation. We don't know what it is. It might not be in the form of a military coup," he said.

Pairote Polpet, a member of the Law Reform Commission, said that the shutdown is weakening the government, which also faces problems on other fronts.

The red shirts seem to be in disunity and rice farmers are angry after the government failed to pay them under the rice pledging scheme.

Suriyasai Katasila, coordinator of the Green Politics group, said the confrontation will be prolonged and the PDRC is prepared for it.

The government has nothing to hold on to but the Feb 2 election, he said. However, the polls are now in doubt as the preparations have been marred by protests.

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