Emerging market currencies buckle

Emerging market currencies buckle

Emerging markets faced intense pressure on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve cut its stimulus further, with currencies sliding in India, South Africa and Turkey despite interest rate rises.

A stall at a market in Srinagar on August 28, 2013 sells wedding garlands made from Indian rupee notes

Asian shares fell heavily and European stocks also retreated, extending a global rout driven by worries about emerging markets.

Concerns were stoked when the US central bank further reduced its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus overnight.

Wall Street sank on Wednesday after the Fed said it would reduce its bond-buying programme by $10 billion to $65 billion per month, citing a pick-up in the US economy.

That followed a similar announcement in December.

Investors took flight as the news fed fears of capital flows from emerging markets that have benefited from the Fed's cheap money policy, hitting nations with large current account deficits, as dealers look for safer investments back home.

The Turkish lira fell against the dollar and the euro, as the Fed news overshadowed a big interest rate rise.

Turkey, where political upheaval is fuelling market fears, doubled its interest rate to 10.0 percent late on Tuesday giving short-lived support to the currency.

South Africa's Rand currency languished close to a five-year dollar low, one day after the central bank announced a half-percentage-point rate rise.

"Rate hikes in Turkey and South Africa have failed to lift their beleaguered currencies as investors fret about the adverse impact on growth in both countries, adding to nervousness in emerging markets," said Nick Stamenkovic at RIA Capital Markets in London.

"Emerging market countries suffering from sizeable current account deficits are heavily dependent on capital inflows which are being undermined by the Fed’s tapering of QE.

"Emerging market volatility looks set to continue amid ongoing uncertainty about the impact of continued moderate Fed tapering and slowing Chinese growth."

A country's current balance of payments measures all regular payments into and out of the economy and the currency, and is a key factor in long-term confidence.

The ruble meanwhile plunged to historic lows against the euro on mounting speculation that Russia's central bank may delay a planned 2015 free-float of the currency because of its rapid decline.

The Indian government vowed on Thursday it would take whatever steps necessary to ensure stability in its financial markets.

India has lifted rates a modest quarter-point to slow inflation, but the move has had only a brief impact on the rupee.

The dollar and euro sank against the yen as dealers sought safer investments, while sentiment took a further blow from data confirming Chinese manufacturing contracted in January.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went down 7.35 points, or 0.58%, to close at 1,264.07 points.

Tokyo stocks dived 2.45% and Sydney shed 0.78%. Hong Kong lost 0.48% in half-day trading before the Chinese New Year holiday.

In New York on Wednesday, the Dow dived 1.15%, the S&P 500 1.01% and the Nasdaq 1.14%.

No quick resolution in sight, analysts warn

Trader Markus Huber, at brokerage Peregrine & Black, cautioned that the turmoil could persist for some time.

"No doubt there could be more turmoil in emerging markets ahead," Mr Huber told AFP.

"However it needs to be seen how major central banks, world politicians and major institutions like the IMF and World Bank will react to the situation should things worsen dramatically.

"Also, it needs to be seen if central banks in countries like Turkey change course and try to fight the decline of the currency via different means, mainly through reforms which are much more likely to bring back investor confidence."

Economist Neil MacKinnon at Russian firm VTB Capital, described the outlook as "poor" for emerging nations, adding that rate increases were "unsustainable" and hurt growth.

"Market volatility is less a function of Fed tapering and now more of a concern about some EM economies that have high current account deficits and thin levels of foreign exchange reserves," he told AFP, referring to the 'Fragile Five' -- Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa.

"It is poor fundamentals rather than Fed tapering which is keeping pressure on this select group. Raising interest rates to defend currencies is not sustainable given the impact on those countries' economic growth."

Do you like the content of this article?
COMMENT (2)