Markets shrug off Moody's

Markets shrug off Moody's

Thailand has become so accustomed to turmoil since the 2006 coup that current political tensions are unlikely to do serious harm to the country's credit rating, says Moody's Investors Service.

Moody's on Friday affirmed the government bond rating at Baa1 with a stable outlook, though it cautioned that the outlook could change if political strife dragged on into the second half of the year.

"Moody's does not expect the recent political developments to have a significant impact on Thailand's medium-term growth outlook, which remains favourable when compared to similar-rated peers," it said.

The news did little to cheer stock investors. The Stock Exchange of Thailand rose just 0.02% on Friday while the baht was little changed.

However, one foreign analyst recommended selling the baht ahead of the weekend as he believed protests by farmers demanding payment for rice could intensify and create instability.

Trading turnover on the SET continued to be anaemic at just 21 billion baht, less than half the daily average of 48 billion recorded in 2013.

Analysts say prospects for corporate earnings remain weak given the continuing slowdown of the Thai economy despite a gradual pickup globally.

The economy expanded by only 2.9% in 2013, dragged down in part by political unrest in the fourth quarter, the National Economic and Social Development Board repoprted earlier this week. Economic growth in 2012 was 6.5%.

Moody's, however, said that its stable outlook reflected the expectation that the political turmoil would not undermine the country's credit strengths "to a material degree".

It lists among the key strengths favourable government debt structure, prudent monetary and macroeconomic policy as well as fiscal management.

The current account deficit almost doubled last year to $2.8 billion, or 0.7% of estimated GDP. Moody's expects small and "manageable" current account deficits of below 1% of GDP in 2014 and 2015.

While anti-government protests will keep real GDP growth in 2014 at around 3%, assuming a return to normal conditions in the second half, Moody's sees growth picking up again from 2015 onward to average 4.5% through to 2018.

However, it warns a prolonged political deadlock into the second half could affect a negative outlook rating.

Other negative factors include a significant rise in government funding costs related to domestic political uncertainty, or a lapse in fiscal discipline and a sharp deterioration of the balance of payments and significant loss of official international reserves.

The SET closed on Friday at 1,304.21, down 0.6% from a week ago but up 0.4% from the end of 2013. However, foreign have been net sellers this month of 18.7 billion baht worth of Thai shares. For the year to date they are net sellers of 32.4 billion baht.

The baht was little changed at 32.53 to the dollar, despite concern that prolonged political turmoil will deepen an economic slowdown.

Credit Agricole CIB economist Dariusz Kowalczyk on Friday advised investors to sell the baht against the dollar before the weekend as farmers' protests threatened to intensify.

"The risk of further instability over the weekend is high," he wrote.

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