The last time the Los Angeles Times checked, the nearly 6,000 Oscar voters were 94% white, 77% male, almost 100% American, with the average age of 62. So much for movies as democracy, so much for art as majoritarianism, because to guess the Oscar winners — the time-honoured and completely useless activity practised around the world — is to guess the taste and preference of these faceless voters.
Still, we’re compelled like alcoholics to watch the televised broadcast of the world’s biggest self-celebratory event, which falls on Monday morning in our time zone. The good news is that Hollywood has had a decent harvest in 2013, and the nominees sound like something that people will continue to discuss, unlike the past few years that yielded rather flimsy winners. Anyway, since most of the nominees have been released in Thailand (except in some categories), you work your own crystal ball while I’m working mine. Here’s the prediction.
Foreign Language Film
• The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
• The Great Beauty (Italy)
• The Hunt (Denmark)
• The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
• Omar (Palestine)
As we all know, Cambodia beats Thailand and gets up there on the list first, deservedly and handsomely. Rithy Panh’s documentary on the Khmer Rouge nightmare has both historical gravity and emotional authenticity that moves you — by including it in the shortlist, the Academy has already showed its taste and sensitivity (for once). But still, the honour will either go to Paolo Sorrentino’s sweeping, vinegary ode to the faded glory of Rome in The Great Beauty, or the morality tale of an accused paedophile in The Hunt. Both films come riding on a grand gesture that the Oscars seem to favour. Meanwhile, the Palestinian film is a West Bank thriller with a political edge and all-or-nothing fatalism that might prove too much for the voters. This is probably the most interesting race of all this year.
- Will Win: The Great Beauty (Italy)
- Should Win: The Missing Picture (Cambodia)
Documentary Feature
• The Act Of Killing
• Cutie And The Boxer
• Dirty Wars
• The Square
• 20 Feet From Stardom
Feel-good docs or feel-bad docs? I’d say it’s a three-way race between The Act Of Killing, an American-directed experimental documentary about the mass killings of suspected communists in 1960 Indonesia; 20 Feet From Stardom, a clap-alongable music documentary about the life of backing singers (last year’s winner, Searching For Sugarman, is also about music); The Square, a passionate account of the uprisings in Egypt against Hosni Mubarak and Mohammad Morsi. On paper, The Act Of Killing, which plays out like a confession box in an insane asylum, is the strongest and the most controversial, though the Academy isn’t known for championing weird avant-gardism. It should be noted, too, that the past horrors of Southeast Asia made their presence felt in the Oscars with this film as well as in the Cambodian The Missing Picture.
- Will win: 20 Feet From Stardom
- Should win: The Act Of Killing or The Square
Cinematography
• The Grandmaster (Philippe Le Sourd)
• Gravity (Emmanuel Lubezki)
• Inside Llewyn Davis (Bruno Delbonnel)
• Nebraska (Phedon Papamichael)
• Prisoners (Roger Deakins)
Four American films and one Hong Kong. Four films in colour, and one in luminous black-and-white. The poetic tea room glow and rain-drenched fist fights in The Grandmaster is up against the dry Midwest of Nebraska and the outer-space majesty of Gravity, with the 1960s Greenwich Village in Inside Llewyn Davis thrown in. I’d love to see a coup by the Hong Kong film, in which the camera, like a spy, tries to capture the elusive memory of the lost kung fu art, but in the year of Earthly pleasure it’s almost impossible to out-awe the sight of our own planet as seen (or imagined and re-created) from space. Technique vs taste? This time, the former is sure to win out.
- Will Win: Gravity
- Should Win: The Grandmaster
Adapted Screenplay
• Before Midnight (Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke)
• Captain Phillips (Billy Ray)
• Philomena (Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope)
• 12 Years A Slave (John Ridley)
• The Wolf Of Wall Street (Terence Winter)
As much as I dig the verbosity of marriage scuffle in Before Midnight, the Academy is likely to prefer either the persistent intensity of 12 Years A Slave or the glib raucousness of The Wolf Of Wall Street (though the older voters might find Scorsese’s film too raunchy).
- Will win:12 Years A Slave
- Should win:The Wolf Of Wall Street
Original Screenplay
• American Hustle (Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell)
• Blue Jasmine (Woody Allen)
• Dallas Buyers Club (Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack)
• Her (Spike Jonze)
• Nebraska (Bob Nelson)
This is tough. Usually, the writing honour went to the quirky or the indie (Django Unchained last year, Midnight In Paris in 2012, Milk in 2009, Juno in 2008, Little Miss Sunshine in 2007). But the five nominees here — except Dallas Buyers Club — are at the top of their game as Hollywood is blessed with a crop of dramatic masters who also embrace the spice of dark humour, notably in American Hustle and Blue Jasmine. But for the unlikeliest romance of the new century, for the seemingly hipsterish and yet authentic exploration into the limitations of human feeling, Her, in which Joaquin Phoenix falls in love with a computer operating system, is the post-love story of our times.
- Will win: American Hustle
- Should win: Her
Actor in a Supporting Role
• Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
• Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
• Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)
• Jonah Hill (The Wolf Of Wall Street)
• Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Since James Franco didn’t make the cut (what a mistake!) from his slithering turn as the gold-toothed rapper in Spring Breakers, I’ll root for Barkhad Abdi for playing a by turn terrifying, by turn pitiable Somalian pirate in Captain Phillips; it says something that Abdi is nominated and Tom Hanks is not. The Oscar voters, however, are likely to pour their sympathy for the tender transvestite played by Jared Leto in Dallas Buyers Club, who wisely keeps his character’s flamboyance to a minimum.
- Will win: Jared Leto
- Should win: Barkhad Abdi
Actress in a Supporting Role
• Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
• Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
• Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years A Slave)
• Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
• June Squibb (Nebraska)
So Scarlett Johansson’s voice (Her) didn’t make it. The Academy could’ve easily chucked Julia Roberts (who gives a lesson in showboating in August: Osage County) and brought Johansson’s disembodied voice in to make the race more interesting. As it stands, it’s simple: either the slave girl or the hysterical wife — Lupita or Jenny. One plays a tortured soul, the other plays a soul that believes it’s being tortured. Take your pick.
- Will win: Lupita Nyong’o
- Should win: Jennifer Lawrence
Actor in a Leading Role
• Christian Bale (American Hustle)
• Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf Of Wall Street)
• Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)
• Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
No one would curse the Academy if the guy they root for doesn’t win on Sunday night. Bale is wicked; Dern is soulful; Ejiofor is deep; DiCaprio is delightfully mad; McConaughey, who’s emerged as a frontrunner, is rough-edged and totally dedicated. He has an advantage because of his physical transformation to play the gaunt, HIV-infected homophobic, and the Oscars have a soft spot for people who change their looks for their roles. DiCaprio, chasing his first trophy after four nominations, will have to keep chasing, while it’s too bad that Dern wouldn’t win from one of the best roles in his career.
- Will win: Matthew McConaughey
- Should win: Bruce Dern
Actress in the Leading Role
• Amy Adams (American Hustle)
• Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
• Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
• Judi Dench (Philomena)
• Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Back in November, it looked like a close race. But when Blanchett kept winning prizes and as Streep’s turn in August: Osage County — while technically awesome — aroused only perfunctory approval, the winner is pretty much locked in. Speculating on the nominees’ fashion choices is more exciting than guessing the result in this case.
- Will win: Cate Blanchett
- Should win: Cate Blanchett
Director
• American Hustle (David O. Russell)
• Gravity (Alfonso Cuaron)
• Nebraska (Alexander Payne)
• 12 Years A Slave (Steve McQueen)
• The Wolf Of Wall Street (Martin Scorsese)
We’re looking at another split year — when best director goes differently from best film. That was once a rare incident, but since the year 2000 it has happened four times, including last year. The nagging feeling that the Oscars’ best picture winners have been rather dull and forgettable in the past few years (Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, Argo — really?) should be dispelled by this year’s substantial shortlist. Steve McQueen goes for moving classicism. Alfonso Cuaron proves that cinema can conquer new frontiers. Alexander Payne is a contemporary chronicler of the Midwest life. Martin Scorsese plunges into the mayhem and emerges with a crooked smile (and we smile with him). David O. Russell, who’s a cinematic heir to Scorsese, shows that American filmmaking can still crackle with verve, glibness and humour. While the spacey solitude of Cuaron’s Gravity is awe-inspiring, it’s Russell who astonishes us with the closer-to-home follies of good and bad humans.
- Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
- Should win: David O. Russell
Best Picture
• American Hustle
• Captain Phillips
• Dallas Buyers Club
• Gravity
• Her
• Nebraska
• Philomena
• 12 Years A Slave
• The Wolf Of Wall Street
Let’s not waste more time.
- Will win: 12 Years A Slave
- Should win: American Hustle
