It's been a long time coming, but it seems cooler minds are beginning to apply some much-needed reason to the national political crisis. It has been 123 days since ex-Democrat Party MP Suthep Thaugsuban appealed for a popular movement to try to overthrow the government. After four months of disruption, anger and killings, there are signs of intervention. There is certainly no guarantee that these tentative steps will succeed. It is certain, though, that the fate of the nation is at stake if they fail.
Mr Suthep tapped into a vein of dissatisfaction when he called on Oct 31 for the country to rally against the government. The immediate cause for his protest was the stunningly arrogant attempt by Pheu Thai members of parliament to ram through an amnesty bill that few wanted, and most opposed. But Mr Suthep, hardly known as a populist or a rabble-rouser, had no trouble calling tens of thousands to his rolling protests.
Within a month, his People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) was a well-oiled protest machine. Southern people, who favour the Democrats, joined Bangkokians for rallies that have become a fact of daily life.
At undefined points in the past month or so, the rallies reached two points of diminishing returns. Many attendees gave up and left the protests to pursue their own lives again. Like many before him, Mr Suthep was unable to keep up the outrage or the numbers. More troubling was the parallel hardening of political feelings. Fringe elements reached for guns, grenades and other weapons.
As of yesterday, 23 people had died in direct political violence. More than 700 have been wounded, some maimed. A week ago, the nation wept at the deaths of four youngsters, all under six. The three girls and a boy, felled in Trat province and central Bangkok, were the ultimate innocent bystanders. None of the children was attending a rally, but all were hit by gunfire and grenade fragments fired wildly at nearby crowds.
This type of "accident" cannot, and must not, stand. It is mildly gratifying that after the deaths of these four innocent children, words and actions indicate an early, still uncertain, prospect for settlement of this stalemate. Nor were events directly linked. But in little more than a day, the army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha spoke of a "special method" to end the chaos, while Mr Suthep shut down his nearly deserted downtown "Bangkok shutdown" sites. Election Commission chief Supachai Somcharoen confirmed he was trying to broker talks.
Yingluck Shinawatra, whose term as caretaker premier officially ends tomorrow, has agreed to talks with Mr Suthep through a go-between. One recalls the "talks" in 2008, brokered by Gen Prayuth's predecessor, Gen Anupong Paochinda. The latter managed to persuade politicians to accept a solution under which Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva would become prime minister. Of course, today's political lineup is very different from late 2008, but that event shows the army can help to bring about a settlement without guns and a coup.
This crisis is blamed upon the remarkably oblivious Pheu Thai, an over-ambitious Mr Suthep, and other forces. Whatever its causes, however, it has been clear from the start there only are two possible endings. Either the country will descend into a long period — probably years — of bitter and likely violent division. Or good and trusted people will emerge to bring about negotiations that will cause, at worse, an uneasy political truce and elections. Or, at best, a strong commitment to reform politics and build a democratic system for all Thais.