The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) has revised the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2014 to 2.5%, down from an earlier forecast of 4.5%.
Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, has revised the country’s GDP growth projection for 2014 to 2.5%.
Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist at the UTCC said the GDP projection had been slashed to between 2% and 3% due to ongoing political deadlock and the unsuccessful general election.
He estimated that economic losses in the first half of the year would total 420 billion baht, of which 100 billion baht relates to the cancellation of investment in water management and infrastructure megaprojects, after the government's two-trillion-baht infrastructure development bill was voided by the Constitution Court.
He added that the state of emergency in Bangkok and surrounding provinces caused 50 billion baht in lost tourism income and 20 billion baht losses in domestic consumption and a cut in investments.
Mr Thanavath predicted that the economy would contract 1% in the first quarter of the year and 1%-2% in the second quarter. This means Thailand's economic growth will range between 0%-2% in the first half of the year he said.
He added that the situation is likely to improve in the second half of the year, with economic growth predicted to stand at 4%-5%.
The university forecasts exports to rise by 4.8% in 2014 and inflation to stay between 2.2% and 2.7%.
Yuthana Sethapramote, director of School of Development Economics of National Institute of Development Administration (Nida), also suggested the economy would grow 2.6% in 2014, on the condition that political problems are resolved within the first half of the year.
If political demonstrations drag on into the second half of 2014, he projected the country’s GDP growth could drop as low as 1.4%.