The caretaker government and its opponents are expected to use all tactics possible to prevent poll candidates who are “nominees” of their opposing camps from winning in the Senate election this Sunday.
The Senate plays a crucial role during this important transitional period as the House of Representatives is not yet in place and the caretaker government is facing many legal lawsuits.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) will wrap up its investigation into the rice-pledging scheme. If the NACC decides to indict caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra for dereliction of duty in the case, it will forward the matter to the Senate for it to launch impeachment proceedings against her.
If the NACC recommends impeaching the former MPs and senators who voted to pass the charter amendment draft seeking to change the make-up of the Senate to make it a fully elected body, the matter will also be forwarded to the Senate.
The NACC’s probe began after the Constitutional Court ruled on Nov 20 last year that the charter amendment on the composition of the Senate violated Section 68, which prohibits attempts to overthrow the democratic system of government in which His Majesty the King is head of state.
The Senate has 150 members, with one elected from each of the 77 provinces and the rest appointed by a selection committee. Senators have a six-year tenure.
A total of 457 candidates nationwide are running for 77 seats — one for each province — in the Senate poll.
Eighteen contenders will run for the single Senate seat in Bangkok. The capital will always be the focal point of attention as speculation is high as to who will win amid the current political turmoil centred mainly in the capital.
Former auditor-general Jaruvan Maintaka is among the contestants running for the Bangkok Senate seat.
She is seen as one of the top opponents of the so-called Thaksin regime for her role as a former member of the now-defunct Asset Scrutiny Committee, which was established by the coup-makers to investigate alleged irregularities of the Thaksin Shinawatra administration after the 2006 putsch.
Although she has no political affiliations, she is pitted against Pol Maj Gen Supisarn Phakdinaruenart, a former chief of the Crime Suppression Division, who has the support of the Pheu Thai Party.
Many key Pheu Thai leaders are helping him campaign and they expect he will gain about 700,000 votes from party supporters in Bangkok.
Stop Global Warming Association president Srisuwan Chanya is tipped as another favourite as he has played a prominent role in scrutinising the government’s projects, particularly the 350-billion-baht water management scheme. He is well known among non-governmental organisations as well as across social media.
Other prominent contestants running in the Senate poll in Bangkok include Piyasuda Paengsupa, an academic on labour relations; Treerat Sengphairoh, wife of Watthana Sengphairoh, a former Thai Rak Thai MP for Bangkok; and Kosit Suvinitjit, a former executive of the Spring News satellite TV channel and a candidate in last year’s Bangkok governor election.
In the Northeast, which is the main Pheu Thai support base, Srimuang Charoensiri, a former education minister, is seen as a favourite for a Senate seat in Maha Sarakham.
If he wins the seat and candidates with affiliations with the party also win more than half of the 77 Senate seats, he would then be expected to be nominated as Senate speaker.
In Udon Thani, which is a red-shirt stronghold, Aporn Sarakham, the wife of Kwanchai Praipana, the leader of red shirts in the province, stands a high chance of winning the seat.
Many candidates in the North are also closely aligned with Pheu Thai and red shirts in the region.
Chiang Mai will see a contest between Krissanapong Prombungram, a key figure of the red-shirt Rak Chiang Mai 51 group and Thaworn Kiatchaiyakorn, a former Chiang Mai senator.
In Chiang Rai, Sakchai Chongsukthanamanee will battle it out against Tuenjai Deetes, an advocate for minority rights, who will seek re-election as a senator in Chiang Rai.
The South, which is the traditional stronghold of the Democrat Party, has many candidates with close ties to politicians.
Suthas Palang, a younger brother of former Democrat MP for Chumphon Suwaroj Palang, will vie for a Senate seat in Chumphon against Phongsa Chunam, a former Forestry Department official, who often appeared on the stage of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee.
However, Wuthisarn Tanchai, deputy secretary-general of the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said he did not think the Senate poll will be a fiercely contested race, nor a very interesting one, because many decent people refused to participate.
Mr Wuthisarn said that the state of politics in the country is now highly polarised, which has weakened the parliamentary political system and parliament itself cannot function properly.
He said the NACC may decide to forward recommendations involving impeachment to the current senators or the Election Commission may delay endorsing the newly elected senators.
As a result, he said the new batch of senators may end up having little role to play during this transitional period.