It appeared to be a perfectly designed plan. Now it is getting close to becoming a political disaster for caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
The plan revolved around three people in a game of political musical chairs — Thawil Pliensri, Wichean Potephosree and Priewpan Damapong.
It started with the shift of Mr Thawil from the top job at the National Security Council on Sept 30, 2011 to the post of prime minister’s adviser so that Pol Gen Wichean could take over the vacant spot. Then Pol Gen Priewpan could be promoted from deputy to chief of police.
Mr Thawil launched a battle for fair play, and had he given up at any stage, Ms Yingluck would not have been put in the position she’s in today with the future of her caretaker cabinet on the line.
“I didn’t even bother printing business cards for that position,” said Mr Thawil, the winner of the fight in the Supreme Administrative Court against Ms Yingluck on March 7, referring to his inactive post at the Prime Minister’s Office, where he sat with nothing to do and with no one knocking on his door to seek his advice.
“This is individual karma and it is collective karma, too,” he later wrote on his Facebook page. He was referring to the Supreme Administrative Court’s ruling last month that the transfer order was illegal and to the consequences suffered by Ms Yingluck and her cabinet ministers.
Luang Pu Buddha Issara is right when he says the Pheu Thai Party is not afraid of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee rallies led by Suthep Thaugsuban. What it fears is Ms Yingluck and her administration being legally garrotted.
Pheu Thai and the red shirts don't care about the PDRC and are more angry at independent organisations — namely the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), plus the Supreme Administrative Court, which ruled in favour of Mr Thawil, and the Election Commission. The latter has been seen as reluctant to organise general elections at a time of political turmoil and instead keen on derailing the one held on Feb 2.
The graft agency is investigating Ms Yingluck for allegedly failing to stop losses and corruption in the rice-buying scheme. That is going to take some time.
The immediate danger is the decision of the charter court to consider a petition of 28 senators to unseat her on grounds based on the Supreme Administrative Court’s ruling. Every political party, including the Democrats, has shifted officials to bring in people they trust. But the Priewpan factor makes this case unique versus other transfer orders.
The caretaker premier will find it difficult explaining to the judges that the Thawil transfer was not a conflict of interest given that Pol Gen Priewpan is her brother-in-law. The three changes of position three years ago looked close to being a “family business” arrangement, judging from the end result.
She has 15 days from Thursday — when the Constitutional Court officially informed her of its decision — to defend herself about transferring Mr Thawil.
Ms Yingluck will have to go if the Constitutional Court rules that she is to be disqualified due to the transfer of Mr Thawil. Her cabinet ministers will have to give up their duties too if the charter court views that they can no longer work if their boss is disqualified.
A survival option for Pheu Thai would be to see the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) pressuring the charter court and the independent agencies to give up their action against Ms Yingluck and to have the stalled general election completed so a new government with a new Pheu Thai face can exert its administrative power.
But time and momentum don't appear to be on their side. The Thawil case decision could come quicker than the one from the NACC, which needs to hear three more people defend Ms Yingluck. She can buy time on that but can't use the same excuse with the Thawil petition. All the evidence is ready, largely based on the Supreme Administrative Court’s reasons, to rule the order illegal. The unanimous decision of the charter court to take up the petition is an indicator there are no legal conflicts over the issue. That’s a bit scary for Pheu Thai and the UDD.
Nobody can precisely predict how the case will end; nobody can read the minds of the charter court judges. But a comment by veteran politician Khunying Suradat Keyuraphan on FM101 radio station on Friday is useful.
“When the ‘first equation’ was ruled as being wrong, the ‘second equation’ will be wrong too,’’ she said. You don’t have to be adept at maths to be able to understand her prediction.
The only thing Ms Yingluck can do is to enjoy the Songkran break and come back fresh to encounter this harsh political reality.
Saritdet Marukatat is digital media news editor, Bangkok Post.