Chances of success remote for peacebroker Abhisit

Chances of success remote for peacebroker Abhisit

Saying he wants to be part of the country’s answer to its troubles, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is trying to break Thailand's political deadlock through talks with the conflicting parties. But his chances of success are pretty slim.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra came out to give full support for Mr Abhisit’s move, saying Mr Abhisit is the most suitable person to talk to Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the anti-government People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).

But her support only widens the gap between Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep whose ultimate goal is to unseat Ms Yingluck from power.

The government is at its most critical juncture. It is in a much weaker position than the PDRC because it is facing the threat of impeachment for the rice scheme fiasco and the wrongful transfer of National Security Council chief Thawil Pliensri.

The real Pheu Thai boss, Ms Yingluck’s elder brother Thaksin Shinawatra, has prepared for the worst-case scenario. Should Ms Yingluck face impeachment, former prime minister Somchai Wongsawat, who is Thaksin’s brother-in-law, has been hand-picked to succeed her.

The use of Section 7 of the constitution to seek the royal appointment of an interim prime minister has been long opposed by the government as an undemocratic ploy of the ammart (elitist) camp to usurp power.

Yet the government is now proposing this same solution to have its own man at the helm.

Mr Somchai is now chairing every important committee in the Pheu Thai Party. If Ms Yingluck must leave office, he is ready to take over.

Whatever political moves Pheu Thai makes will come under his supervision.

Ms Yingluck will testify to the Constitutional Court on Tuesday in Mr Thawil’s transfer case. Thaksin has therefore given the green light to core leaders of the red-shirt movement to mobilise the government’s supporters from the Northeast, Pheu Thai’s main political stronghold, to stage a rally at Utthayan Road from Wednesday onward.

The government’s strategies to survive the rulings from the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission go hand in hand with its support for the red-shirt movement.

They hope to make the PDRC and Mr Abhisit the target of condemnation from the grassroots people, who are the main supporters of Pheu Thai.

Mr Abhisit and the Democrat Party say the move to forge a political consensus has received support from many key players. They include the supreme commander, the election commissioners, the leader of Chartthaipattana and other political parties, and the permanent secretary of the Justice Ministry who is leading a reform network.

The most important players — the government, and PDRC leader Mr Suthep — will be kept for last.

Mr Suthep has vent his dissatisfaction at Mr Abhisit for "meddling", saying he will not take part in his former boss’s political negotiations.

Mr Abhisit admits he and the Democrat Party are part of the political problem. "But I now want to be part of the answer," he insisted, saying he cannot sit by and do nothing when serious political mayhem lies ahead.

It is why he has had to make a U-turn politically by engineering talks with the Pheu Thai government and even Thaksin himself.

Meanwhile, Mr Abhisit is facing questions from all sides as to why he is doing it when the chance of success is near zero.

Many believe in his integrity although disagree with his move, which seems to undermine Mr Suthep’s "reform before election" goal.

The "reform before election" goal is difficult to bring about when there is no law to make it possible, Mr Abhisit says.

His critics are not only from the anti-government camp. The Pheu Thai government and red-shirt leaders are also pouring scorn on Mr Abhisit’s initiative.

They have also dared him to convince Mr Suthep first before talking to Pheu Thai, in the hope of breaking once and for all any ties that remain between Mr Abhisit and Mr Suthep.

The political showdown that will determine the future of Ms Yingluck is less than 10 days hence. While Ms Yingluck is publicly vouching support for Mr Abhisit, it is certain that she will never accept his proposed solutions, judging from the concerted attacks on Mr Abhisit from anyone who matters in Pheu Thai.

That is why Mr Abhisit’s efforts to be part of Thailand’s answer will be fruitless. No matter how well-thought out his political proposals, they will never be able to satisfy all conflicting parties.

The government’s goal is to have a new election as fast as possible. The PDRC still insists on "reform before an election" as the country’s answer. Mr Abhisit’s peace solution cannot easily convince them their goals will not be lost in the fog of political compromise.

With the rival parties still poles apart, Mr Abhisit may have to stop his peace initiative sooner than he thinks.


Nattaya Chetchotiros is assistant news editor, Bangkok Post.

Nattaya Chetchotiros

Assistant News Editor

Nattaya Chetchotiros is Assistant News Editor, Bangkok Post.

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