Will this coup kill or cure us of our ills?

Will this coup kill or cure us of our ills?

In X-Men: Days of Future Past, the warring factions realised at the end it was mutually destructive to annihilate one another. So they sent Wolverine back in time to change the past so the future would not be so bleak.

For many people, the May 22 coup is their day of future past.

The latest coup is seen as a second chance, an opportunity to redo what wasn't accomplished in 2006.

Like Wolverine, army chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha has managed to turn the past into the present somewhat. His supporters are thus hoping that this time he will get it right.

If the last coup resulted in the bitterest conflict in Thai political history, these people are hoping that this coup will set the course for a better future; a future that is more harmonious and less prone to clashes.

They are hoping that the course correction will be successful with the benefit of hindsight.

Needless to say, those who oppose the coup are probably looking at the event and thinking it looks more like X-Men: Apocalypse.

Coup opponents do not believe a military takeover can solve anything. In fact, they believe it’s coups that are the root cause of the conflict. They think it’s pointless to do the same thing and expect a different outcome.

If the last coup produced bickering, this coup will end up causing the same mess, if not worse.

At this point, it’s no exaggeration that Gen Prayuth alone holds the key to these questions and the country’s future.

He alone holds the power of both the prime minister and parliament.

There is no question that the army chief has taken on a mammoth task by grabbing administrative power and transferring all the seemingly unsolvable problems onto himself. He is now both the bearer of hope and carrier of hatred and despair.

The weight of the mission is already heavy with condemnation, pouring in both from the international community and the pockets of protesters popping up around the country.

Still, it looks like the army chief and newly endorsed head of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) is set to make the task even more difficult by staying in for the long game.

I have to admit that at first, I thought there was a sliver of a chance that Gen Prayuth would be able to pull off the naturally unpopular task of a military takeover by adopting a quick-in, quick-out approach.

As I listened to the army chief’s early announcement that he was only doing this to ensure national security and public safety, to prevent war weapons from being used to instigate violence, I assumed that the coup-making council would stay in power for a matter of weeks.

They could simply do the necessary things: Issue a temporary charter, set up a civilian government and fix a date for a new election.

I believed the short-stay strategy was the only way for Gen Prayuth to win, or the least damaging one. The longer the coup makers stay in power, the more resistance will be generated among those who oppose them. It’s not too difficult to see that a long-staying coup will only benefit Thaksin Shinawatra and his pro-democracy campaign.

As more coup orders roll in, however, I am beginning to see that the coup makers may be looking at a much more flexible timeline than my matter-of-weeks calculation.

The NCPO’s structure of administration, with Gen Prayuth and his deputies overlooking such key areas as security, economic affairs and judicial matters, looks like one that can be used to run the country.

During his first briefing to the media after receiving royal endorsement as head of the NCPO yesterday, Gen Prayuth affirmed that there will be a return to the democratic process and an election will be held, but he refused to say when it will occur.

In fact, the army chief has set no timeline for anything. He only said there will be a prime minister and a government but the process is not finished yet. He also said all the strict measures that he has put into place such as a curfew will be relaxed once the situation becomes more peaceful. Does he mean in a year? Or two? The only definite answer that the army chief gave to reporters yesterday was people must be patient.

Gen Prayuth also talked about setting up a national legislative assembly and reform council. In fact, he talked about correcting everything that has become a conflict. He talked about returning Thailand to the strife-free country it once was.

That will be our day of future past. Will we get to see it? Only Gen Prayuth knows.


Atiya Achakulwisut is Contributing Editor, Bangkok Post.

Atiya Achakulwisut

Columnist for the Bangkok Post

Atiya Achakulwisut is a columnist for the Bangkok Post.

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