The people running Thailand these days shouldn’t be too surprised by the harsh reception they’ve received from the international community. What did they expect, after repeated declarations by the Thai military that coups were a thing of the past?
When the first anti-Thaksin coup took place on Sept 19, 2006, strong reactions were also heard. But within two weeks the condemnation subsided as the coup-makers came up with a name, however imperfect, to head the interim government.
Then they drafted (again within two weeks) a short statute, with 39 articles, as a bible for running the country. Gen Surayud Chulanond, the appointed PM, was soon able to provide a clear timeframe for elections.
Now a second anti-Thaksin coup is entering its second month and we have yet to see either a bible (maybe it’s buried under all those roadmaps) or any white knights in the cabinet.
After the May 22 coup, some allies of Thailand seemed flabbergasted. The United States reacted as if it had been betrayed by its best friend in Southeast Asia. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon expressed hope for a swift return to democratic rule. But as the weeks passed, different countries have adopted different attitudes toward the junta.
Asean predictably stuck to its non-interference mantra. Myanmar, still run largely by soldiers, seemed to understand the Thai situation best. Malaysia and China did some energetic catching up with their Thai military friends. Others are murmuring quietly and waiting for some golden light of hope from this founder of Asean.
But even Malaysia, the first country senior junta members visited, has yet to get a clear signal about how the Thai military will proceed with the peace talks that Kuala Lumpur helped broker with the Barisan Revolusi Nasional under the auspices of the ousted government.
China, too, has been quietly asking the junta how soon it could organise an election, if not set up a civilian interim government.
The Australians at least have been consistent in their principle of engagement. They immediately downgraded ties with Thailand, imposing a travel ban on the junta leaders and cut defence cooperation in some of the toughest measures taken by a foreign government.
Military ties between Thailand and Australia date back to 1945, and defence cooperation that involves training as well as maritime, ground and air exercises has gone on for four decades. The countries signed a free trade agreement in 2005 under the former Thaksin administration.
Japan has made clear, though with subtlety, that it did not accept military intervention and diplomatic representatives have expressed concerns to the junta about the deteriorating human rights situation.
Even Japanese companies that have longstanding ties with Thailand are getting increasingly worried about the country’s political future. Japanese businesses account for 60% of foreign investment in Thailand, but Indonesia, Myanmar and other rising economies beckon if Thailand cannot produce a clear economic management plan and political agenda.
The European Union took some of the sternest action, apart from calling on the military leadership “to restore, as a matter of urgency, the legitimate democratic process and the Constitution, through credible and inclusive elections”.
The EU has suspended its engagement including official visits to and from Thailand. The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement will not be signed until a democratically elected government is in place. EU members are also reviewing their military cooperation with Thailand.
Washington has suspended security-related assistance, cancelled high-level engagements and a number of military and police training programmes. An early casualty was the bilateral naval exercise called Carat (Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training), which was under way during the coup; also cancelled was the planned bilateral Hanuman Guardian army exercise.
But other countries’ hopes that the military will move relatively quickly to transfer power to a civilian government and toward free and fair elections – as happened after the 2006 coup – appear to have been dashed. Evidence is mounting of the current regime being more repressive and likely to last longer than the last one.
Short-sighted and poor management, due perhaps to the normal fear of losing its grip, has made the Thai junta take harsh steps and remain stubborn in the face of criticism.
Of course, none of the disapproving countries will impose economic sanctions or other severe measures as Thailand by default remains their best link in Southeast Asia. But the country’s worsening image and the psychological effects on the region have friends of Thailand talking tough.
If the junta softens its tone and opens its eyes and ears, Thailand could still reverse its fall from grace and walk side by side with others. Who knows? That application for non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council in 2017-18 might even survive.